The challenge of Turkey’s young conservatives


A recent Pew Research Center study has shown that different generations of Republican Party supporters have developed diverse approaches regarding conservative values. According to the 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public report, only 8 percent of millennials, compared to 27 percent of baby boomers and 30 percent of the oldest GOP voters, qualify as consistently conservative. The ideological divide between different generations also manifests itself among "mostly conservative" Republicans with 23 percent of millennials and 37 percent of older supporters scoring within the range. It goes without saying that, provided that the trend continues over the next decade, the Republican Party base will look considerably different in 10 years than the present.Although the aforementioned study does not provide insights into the conservative scene in Turkey, the variation between the experiences of older Justice and Development Party (AK Party) supporters and young conservatives would indicate that a similar development could possible occur in the country.Let us take a step back and recall what older generations of Turkish conservatives have lived through. Although the Islamic movement rose to prominence as early as the late 1960s, conservatives did not win any major elections until 1994 when the Welfare Party (RP) outperformed its competitors to claim the office of Istanbul metropolitan mayor in the local elections. Three years later, the 1997 postmodern coup overthrew the democratically elected government of Turkey, which included the RP, and the Constitutional Court proceeded to outlaw the movement's political activities. Following a stormy and particularly oppressive period, the AK Party was established in 2001 and won a landslide victory in the 2002 parliamentary elections to establish the first single-party government since the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) of the 1980s. The rest, as they say, is history.Over the past 12 years, however, the AK Party has not only remained in power but also implemented major reforms in a variety of areas including civil-military relations, foreign policy and the economy. Key government officials including President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, have receive extensive television and print coverage at home and abroad. In this sense, the AK Party leadership has become the face of the Turkish state for international observers and domestic audiences alike.The same, of course, goes for the party's youngest voters – people who grew up supporting a political movement that has been attending to the country's pressing problems throughout their teenage years. In this regard, their experience has inevitably and notably differed from long-time supporters, most of whom joined the party ranks as young men and women and are currently in their 40s and 50s – people who were around when the seemingly invincible and almighty secularist establishment, which consisted of the country's military command and members of high courts among others, deposed the RP and effectively hunted down the movement's leaders.Against the backdrop of major changes in the party's leadership, reaching out to first-time voters and young conservatives who did not live through the most tumultuous periods of Turkey's history but heard countless stories about the suffering and victimization of older generations, represents a major challenge for the AK Party government. Although the occasional remark from secularist commentators such as recently published allegations about female supporters being paid by the party to wear headscarves and people handing out cash gifts to attend campaign events, serve to keep their sense of discrimination alive, one cannot dispute that young voters have different experiences and, by extension, a different set of political, economic and cultural expectations and priorities.Over the next years, the AK Party leadership will understandably develop policies to address the challenge of an emerging generation gap and meet the expectations of a key constituency with long-term influence in the political arena.