A way back to the peace process

The PKK leadership will soon call for a new cease-fire with the U.S. serving as an outside observer



In recent years, no word has probably been used more frequently than "process." Most recently, both President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said that not only peace but also the war on terror was, in fact, a process. Holding a press conference ahead of his trip to China and Indonesia last week, the president said that the peace process was unlikely to continue. Noting that he was against party closures President Erdoğan said that certain members of Parliament with proven ties to terrorist organizations might face prosecution - which is where concrete statements about the peace process come into play. A number of statements that senior government officials and politicians made in recent days indicate that Turkey has two processes; counterterror and peace. For some time, these two fundamentally opposed processes will co-exist in an atmosphere of uncertainty. While Turkey seeks to establish that it, like any other nation-state, has a monopoly over violence, the PKK attempts to showcase its capacity for terrorist activities - both of which mean that the peace process will remain in intensive care for a while. Personally, I believe that the people's commitment to peace will get the talks back on track. Nowadays, everybody should reflect on their attitudes.It is no secret that the government had been having second thoughts about the peace process for some time, even though the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) remained committed to its flagship initiative until the end. However, it became impossible to move forward when the PKK/Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) used the Syrian civil war and domestic turmoil (including the Gezi Park protests and the Gülenist attacks) as a pretext to stop the withdrawal of armed militants from Turkey. The ultimate crisis took place when it became clear that the organization was aggressively recruiting new militants in an effort to prepare for war.At this point, spokespeople for the PKK and the HDP stick to big words, but they will inevitably reflect on their practices. In recent years, the PKK allowed greed to cloud its strategic mindset. Obviously, the organization's leadership did not expect an acting government to launch a comprehensive military operation. Likewise, they falsely believed that Turkey would need more time to reach an agreement with the United States over the anti-ISIS campaign.Nonetheless, observers must keep in mind that the PKK has a great ability to adapt. Furthermore, they already know that the continuation of violent conflict won't serve their interests. After all, the PKK needs some degree of peace in Turkey to consolidate their control over northern Syria. Needless to say, the end of the cease-fire seriously discredited the HDP. U.S. President Barack Obama's reaffirmation that the PKK is a "terrorist organization," was also a heavy blow on the organization's efforts to legitimize itself through the Democratic Union Party (PYD).The PKK/HDP movement's first serious mistake was to turn against President Erdoğan by failing to look past the noise of everyday politics. Unfortunately, they were unable to see that weakening the president and the AK Party would inevitably hurt the peace process. Furthermore, the movement, encouraged by Turkey's differences with Washington over the future of Syria, prioritized territorial expansion in northern Syria to other items on its agenda. Likewise, they were unwilling to accept that the U.S. was only willing to assist Kurdish nationalists within the framework of the fight against ISIS.The dream of establishing a de facto Kurdish state is an overly ambitious goal provided that the future of Syria remains unclear. I believe that the PKK will reach the same conclusion and adapt to changing circumstances. As a regional player, the organization desperately needs some level of legitimacy in order to consolidate its power in the conflict zone. As such, there is a good chance that the PKK leadership will soon call for a new cease-fire with the U.S. serving as an outside observer.At this time, it remains to be seen when the parties will go back to the peace process. My answer? Things will get back on track when the PKK commits to the framework that Abdullah Öcalan laid out in March 2013 and keeps its promises.