Latest arrangements for Syria's future
Russia's close relation with the PYD concerns both Ankara and Washington. While Ankara is concerned about weapons that the PKK could obtain, the U.S. does not want the PYD to be included under Russia's influence in the region
Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Moscow, who has not been able to go abroad for five years, has come to the top of the world agenda. After this visit, Putin said that Russia could cooperate with other countries for a "peaceful political resolution" that would encompass all ethnic, religious and political groups.
White House spokesman Eric Schultz issued the U.S. government's rebuke of the visit. "We view the red carpet welcome for Assad, who has used chemical weapons against his own people, at odds with the stated goal by the Russians for a political transition in Syria," he said.
Aside from criticism, the key phrase in statements is "political transition."
We already know that some 10 countries that are closely interested in the Syrian civil war have been busy with work in recent weeks to end it with a political transition. Parallel to this, the top diplomats from the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan met to negotiate this in Vienna on Oct. 23.
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A part of the arrangements are a series of diplomatic meetings regarding the meaning of a political transition that would include Assad's departure from power.
A source at an informative meeting we attended in Ankara said that a six-month transition process was agreed to. This transition period was produced to dispel the worries of Russia, which expressed its anxiety regarding the possibility that the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) might stand out in the chaos of Assad's sudden departure.
It was presumed Assad would occupy a symbolic position and his authority would be delegated to a temporary administration. The most delicate point of the ongoing negotiations is the failure to clarify Assad's future, including some matters such as to which country he would be exiled or how he would give up his seat. It is evident that the possibility of Assad preserving his seat of power constitutes a serious problem in such a period of political transition. In a telephone conversation he had with Putin, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pointed out that Assad, who has made promises but not kept any of them since 2011, couldn't be trusted to comply with a transition process.
Emphasizing that the decisions taken at the Geneva I and II conferences on Syria were not implemented, Erdoğan said that Assad's only concern is to gain time. In addition, another critical aspect is how the Syrian opposition would agree to this transition.
In an interview we conducted with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, he said that a transition period in which Syrians could believe in the reality of an upcoming peace is required. He repeated that a formula not approved by the Syrian people couldn't be approved by Turkey.
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The major part of the search for a political transition in Syria is about military preparations and alliances. From the Free Syrian Army to the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the relations conflicting actors form in the region and field arrangements regarding their tangible acquisitions follow a dynamic course.
While entering the homestretch in the Syria crisis, it can be said that there is a competition between the U.S. and Russia in keeping their allies in front.
With the air strikes it started on Sept. 30, Russia has both preserved the Assad regime from dissolution and solidified the region controlled by Assad before sitting at the negotiating table.
However, it is an object of curiosity what kind of a relation Russia, which has received the support of Iraq on behalf of the anti-ISIS fight, will form with the PYD.
Russia's close relationship with the PYD concerns both Ankara and Washington. While Ankara is concerned about weapons that the outlawed PKK could obtain, the U.S. does not want the PYD and its armed People's Protection Units (YPG) to be under Russian influence. The PYD's motivation, on the other hand, is of course to further solidify its position by making use of the atmosphere of competition.
With these circumstances, Erdoğan gave a quite clear message to Putin, who met with Assad in Moscow, that he should stay away from the PYD. "We recognize the PYD as a terrorist organization. If you cooperate with the PYD, it means that you are cooperating with the enemy of your ally, which will be negatively reflected in our relations," he said.
The U.S.'s efforts to limit Russia's influence on agents in the field target both Iraq and the PYD.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford made a warning forcing Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's administration to make a choice between them and Russia in the anti-ISIS fight, which sets an example for the abovementioned case.
Another interesting anecdote is that the PYD and the YPG, which has received munitions from the U.S., are mentioned in the Washington Post in the context of art smuggling more than their anti-ISIS activities. In a nutshell, the preparations for determining Syrian's future have gained speed, so we had better be ready for new developments.
White House spokesman Eric Schultz issued the U.S. government's rebuke of the visit. "We view the red carpet welcome for Assad, who has used chemical weapons against his own people, at odds with the stated goal by the Russians for a political transition in Syria," he said.
Aside from criticism, the key phrase in statements is "political transition."
We already know that some 10 countries that are closely interested in the Syrian civil war have been busy with work in recent weeks to end it with a political transition. Parallel to this, the top diplomats from the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan met to negotiate this in Vienna on Oct. 23.
***
A part of the arrangements are a series of diplomatic meetings regarding the meaning of a political transition that would include Assad's departure from power.
A source at an informative meeting we attended in Ankara said that a six-month transition process was agreed to. This transition period was produced to dispel the worries of Russia, which expressed its anxiety regarding the possibility that the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) might stand out in the chaos of Assad's sudden departure.
It was presumed Assad would occupy a symbolic position and his authority would be delegated to a temporary administration. The most delicate point of the ongoing negotiations is the failure to clarify Assad's future, including some matters such as to which country he would be exiled or how he would give up his seat. It is evident that the possibility of Assad preserving his seat of power constitutes a serious problem in such a period of political transition. In a telephone conversation he had with Putin, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pointed out that Assad, who has made promises but not kept any of them since 2011, couldn't be trusted to comply with a transition process.
Emphasizing that the decisions taken at the Geneva I and II conferences on Syria were not implemented, Erdoğan said that Assad's only concern is to gain time. In addition, another critical aspect is how the Syrian opposition would agree to this transition.
In an interview we conducted with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, he said that a transition period in which Syrians could believe in the reality of an upcoming peace is required. He repeated that a formula not approved by the Syrian people couldn't be approved by Turkey.
***
The major part of the search for a political transition in Syria is about military preparations and alliances. From the Free Syrian Army to the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the relations conflicting actors form in the region and field arrangements regarding their tangible acquisitions follow a dynamic course.
While entering the homestretch in the Syria crisis, it can be said that there is a competition between the U.S. and Russia in keeping their allies in front.
With the air strikes it started on Sept. 30, Russia has both preserved the Assad regime from dissolution and solidified the region controlled by Assad before sitting at the negotiating table.
However, it is an object of curiosity what kind of a relation Russia, which has received the support of Iraq on behalf of the anti-ISIS fight, will form with the PYD.
Russia's close relationship with the PYD concerns both Ankara and Washington. While Ankara is concerned about weapons that the outlawed PKK could obtain, the U.S. does not want the PYD and its armed People's Protection Units (YPG) to be under Russian influence. The PYD's motivation, on the other hand, is of course to further solidify its position by making use of the atmosphere of competition.
With these circumstances, Erdoğan gave a quite clear message to Putin, who met with Assad in Moscow, that he should stay away from the PYD. "We recognize the PYD as a terrorist organization. If you cooperate with the PYD, it means that you are cooperating with the enemy of your ally, which will be negatively reflected in our relations," he said.
The U.S.'s efforts to limit Russia's influence on agents in the field target both Iraq and the PYD.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford made a warning forcing Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's administration to make a choice between them and Russia in the anti-ISIS fight, which sets an example for the abovementioned case.
Another interesting anecdote is that the PYD and the YPG, which has received munitions from the U.S., are mentioned in the Washington Post in the context of art smuggling more than their anti-ISIS activities. In a nutshell, the preparations for determining Syrian's future have gained speed, so we had better be ready for new developments.
Last Update: October 26, 2015 02:07