Beyond the 'Miscalculations'


President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is going to tour EU capitals in order to revive the ailing relationship between Turkey and the EU. I do not know how many articles have started with these same words since the freezing of eight Turkish EU chapters in 2006. It is even a sadder situation if we look back at how these relations have been suspended, frozen, delayed and sabotaged since the first Turkey-European Economic Community Association Council meeting in 1986, the first after the 1980 coup.Seldom in history have relations between a country and a group of countries been so difficult. Obviously, if total integration is the objective, the current situation of these relations does not bode well at all. Still, negotiations should have come to a halt a long time ago if both sides were not really in need of each other that badly. The recent developments in the Middle East have shown how inextricable the situations in Syria and Iraq have become. Since the end of World War I, military operations from different armed forces have been taking place in different places and countries of the region. Full-fledged wars were waged, frontiers drawn, new states created, occupational forces sent in and different regional associations initiated, basically to no avail. The whole region remains one of the less politically, socially and militarily stable areas in the world. On top of it, gas and oil are found in abundance, which helps very authoritarian regime to reaffirm their power and to block democratic opening.Recently, our allies in the EU have found who the culprit of making things go so tragically bad in the region - Turkey, because it has helped a number of Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) fighters cross the border to Syria and participate in bloody terrorist acts. The Turkish government is accused of having supplied al-Nusra Front fighters with light armaments before the creation of ISIS. The latter has very probably acquired some of its armaments from Turkish sources, if we have to take information from Western media sources into account.I do not possess any particular information concerning the veracity of such accusations. I just would like to state the facts as I see them and as they are known to the general public: the Syrian-Turkish border has been opened - this is a fact - by the Turkish authorities to allow hundreds of thousands of refugees to flee for their lives and honor. It is also a fact that Turkey had to turn a blind eye to ISIS smuggled oil to allow the riparian populations to insure their subsistence. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria was thought to have been totally corrupt and ailing, which probably was the case. But letting Russia and Iran continue the fight for Assad has totally changed the balance. An unspeakable massacre has been staged before the uninterested eyes of the U.S. and EU.If a staunch position against both Russia and Iran could have been taken at the beginning of the Syrian civil war against the atrocities, today's situation could have been totally different. It is too easy to point to Turkey, a country hosting nearly 2 million refugees, as having miscalculated the situation in Syria. It should remind us that the miscalculations during the Iran-Iraq war when arming Saddam Hussein and created a Frankenstein's monster who later attacked Kuwait and nearly destroyed the whole political structure of the region, starting with his own country. It was also a miscalculation when Saddam was attacked on the grounds that he was holding weapons of mass destruction. And again, to unconditionally support Israel, which has pushed a whole population of Palestinians to the edge of despair, occasioning terrible terrorist attacks and subsequent heavy bombing of civilian populations is a miscalculation. And it was miscalculated again when deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was brought to his knees by traditional beneficiaries severing all financial support to Egypt.None of these miscalculations was done by Turkey, but it has created the incredible quagmire of today. Now, what shall Turkish analysts do? Write articles advocating that the U.S. and EU are not allies anymore, because their policies in the Middle East have been criminally wrong? This is exactly what The Wall Street Journal has been doing. That will certainly help the very wise policies of Israel and the U.S. to continue in the Middle East, now that the culprit, Turkey, has been discovered.