Vox Populi, Vox Dei

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has just made public her evaluation of the Greek crisis, saying that they have not anticipated the austerity policy having such deeply negative effects on social grounds



Despite the fact that I have been writing a weekly column in Daily Sabah for more than a year, I am only now receiving the first reactions from my close circle of friends and acquaintances. Perhaps people did not think that I would be writing a column for so long, or perhaps they thought that I was not really ready to hear remarks and comments on my writing. In any case, I was quite surprised three days ago when an old friend, a journalist from Greece who has lived in Istanbul for more than 20 years asked me "not to be so much against Syriza," Greece's Coalition of the Radical Left.My surprise was two-fold. First, it showed me that people actually followed my thoughts in Daily Sabah and second, it also showed me that perhaps I sound too opinionated against the Syriza-led Greek government. So I went through my previous articles about Greece and Syriza and found them to not really be very optimistic about what the new government could really achieve. I am also a little sorry that the performance of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's government has been even below my forecasts. However, the problem is systemic more than anything else. Syriza had to face "Cerberus" as the Greeks see it - the troika. It is made up of three faceless, anonymous institutions: The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Commission.The IMF is vested with the mission to establish monetary stability among its member states. Upon initial IMF formation, its two primary functions were "to oversee the fixed exchange rate arrangements between countries, thus helping national governments manage their exchange rates and allowing these governments to prioritize economic growth, and to provide short-term capital to aid balance of payments." By nature, the IMF does not really take into serious consideration the social consequences of its rescue plans. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has just made public her evaluation of the Greek crisis, saying that they have not anticipated the austerity policy having such deeply negative effects on social grounds.The ECB is definitely in charge of establishing EU monetary policy, and its formal aim is to establish stability of the common currency. Together with the IMF, these two institutions had to solve a problem that was a first of its kind: How to help an ailing economy whose debt is colossal but whose currency (the euro) does not weaken. Both institutions' approaches were unprecedented and they did what they do best - injecting money into Greece's banking system with no convincing results for the majority of the population.The third institution is the European Commission, basically the best-suited institution to understand and help Greece, but the sums involved amounted almost to the yearly budget of the EU, definitely too large and important for the European Commission to handle. But the real problem was also two-fold. The European Commission is not at all the same institution that existed and thrived under its former President Jacques Delors as it has lost most of its influential power since 1995. Furthermore, like any other EU institution, the commission did not trust the Greek political class.So how could Syriza be successful in such conditions? In the short run, things have gone even worse than the worst expectations, with the Greek opposition of conventional political parties champing at the bit, waiting for Tsipras and Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis to fail spectacularly, whereas the bureaucracy continued the job as "business as usual," not really tackling the structural reforms the troika so badly wanted for five years.The horizon may not be that gloomy, because with the few reforms the government has undertaken, Syriza has shown that there is no miracle solution through such implementations. What Tsipras could have achieved was a real and revolutionary opening toward Turkey, especially over the Cyprus issue. Now that the natural gas bonanza dream seems to be over on the side of Greek Cyprus, both Greek Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Tsipras can make a bold move, which will perhaps not change my basic analysis, but will at last bring a new and revolutionary impetus to the Greek government's difficult situation.