War in Syria getting out of hand
Yesterday morning the Foreign Ministry made a public declaration. The Russian ambassador to Ankara was summoned to the ministry and was given a formal protest by the Turkish authorities concerning a border violation by Russian jet fighters.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has recently taken a very bold step in Syria by sending almost 30 state-of-the-art warplanes manned by Russian pilots together with a sizeable number of new military advisors. Armored vehicles are said to have been transported to Tartus. Just sitting on the seaside by the Bosporus in Istanbul would give a complete layman quite a good idea of the number of Russian military vessels going back and forth. There is huge traffic between Russian Black Sea naval bases and Tartus, their only military base on the Mediterranean.
Iran, on the other hand, has started to openly send ground troops to back Bashar Assad, probably openly sending troops abroad for the first time since the Iran-Iraq war. All this shows that Assad cannot have even a semblance of authority over the cities and territories under his control. He will probably have to go sometime soon, but neither Russia nor Iran want to accept a total removal of the regime. The forces on the ground are the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed People's Protection Units (YPG), the scattered Syrian army, a multitude of disparate forces called the Free Syrian Army, which is totally ineffective. Some other sizeable armed groups like al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front also remain important outsiders. There is, however, a blunt reality, no group, including ISIS, can claim to control Syria and parts of Iraq in a foreseeable future.
So before final negotiations, parties would like to sit at the table with as many trump cards up their sleeves as possible. Russia is taking a big risk by sending its Su-35 jet fighters to participate in the war in Syria. There are already U.S. warplanes and some other air forces organizing air raids in Syria, but this will be the first time that the U.S. and Russian air forces will operate on the same arena of war. The last time when Soviet and U.S. fleets almost went into open confrontation was the Cuban missile crisis 54 years ago. Turkish fighter jets never engaged Soviet or Russian warplanes. Putin's strategy looks extremely hazardous from this viewpoint. A very small incident can ignite a whole confrontation in the present state of Syria.
On a larger scale, Putin's move looks less dangerous and almost beneficial for him. He has more than ever the possibility to consolidate the de facto partitioning of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. Moreover, Russian military technology will, for the first time since the Soviet era, become a real problem for the U.S. and other NATO countries.
The problem is that in the long run, Russian politics will inevitably go into a dead-end. Russian industry has immense problems of restructuration and productivity already. The country basically exports only oil, natural gas and weapons. Its economy is far from being self-sufficient and heavily relies on the exportation of energy resources. Its demography is ailing, the political regime looks very much like the old Stalinist times, with the notable exception that nobody cares about the working classes anymore. It is worth remembering that the Soviet regime did not implode because of a foreign military intervention or an internal insurrection. It almost evaporated because there was a huge distortion between the professed objectives of society and reality.
A very similar fate could be that of Putin's Russia. Obsolete and dreadful governance based on Russian nationalism will not allow Russia to play a sustainable role in international relations. The Soviet economy collapsed when the U.S. President Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" project was announced. The said project never saw the light of day, and we know now that it was not feasible with 1980s technology. Still, such a bluff sufficed to dismantle the immovable Soviet system in 1991. For the sake of remembering, a CIA report depicted a "strong and growth creating economic infrastructure" in the Soviet Union in 1985. Things can go much faster than Putin's expectations.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has recently taken a very bold step in Syria by sending almost 30 state-of-the-art warplanes manned by Russian pilots together with a sizeable number of new military advisors. Armored vehicles are said to have been transported to Tartus. Just sitting on the seaside by the Bosporus in Istanbul would give a complete layman quite a good idea of the number of Russian military vessels going back and forth. There is huge traffic between Russian Black Sea naval bases and Tartus, their only military base on the Mediterranean.
Iran, on the other hand, has started to openly send ground troops to back Bashar Assad, probably openly sending troops abroad for the first time since the Iran-Iraq war. All this shows that Assad cannot have even a semblance of authority over the cities and territories under his control. He will probably have to go sometime soon, but neither Russia nor Iran want to accept a total removal of the regime. The forces on the ground are the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed People's Protection Units (YPG), the scattered Syrian army, a multitude of disparate forces called the Free Syrian Army, which is totally ineffective. Some other sizeable armed groups like al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front also remain important outsiders. There is, however, a blunt reality, no group, including ISIS, can claim to control Syria and parts of Iraq in a foreseeable future.
So before final negotiations, parties would like to sit at the table with as many trump cards up their sleeves as possible. Russia is taking a big risk by sending its Su-35 jet fighters to participate in the war in Syria. There are already U.S. warplanes and some other air forces organizing air raids in Syria, but this will be the first time that the U.S. and Russian air forces will operate on the same arena of war. The last time when Soviet and U.S. fleets almost went into open confrontation was the Cuban missile crisis 54 years ago. Turkish fighter jets never engaged Soviet or Russian warplanes. Putin's strategy looks extremely hazardous from this viewpoint. A very small incident can ignite a whole confrontation in the present state of Syria.
On a larger scale, Putin's move looks less dangerous and almost beneficial for him. He has more than ever the possibility to consolidate the de facto partitioning of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. Moreover, Russian military technology will, for the first time since the Soviet era, become a real problem for the U.S. and other NATO countries.
The problem is that in the long run, Russian politics will inevitably go into a dead-end. Russian industry has immense problems of restructuration and productivity already. The country basically exports only oil, natural gas and weapons. Its economy is far from being self-sufficient and heavily relies on the exportation of energy resources. Its demography is ailing, the political regime looks very much like the old Stalinist times, with the notable exception that nobody cares about the working classes anymore. It is worth remembering that the Soviet regime did not implode because of a foreign military intervention or an internal insurrection. It almost evaporated because there was a huge distortion between the professed objectives of society and reality.
A very similar fate could be that of Putin's Russia. Obsolete and dreadful governance based on Russian nationalism will not allow Russia to play a sustainable role in international relations. The Soviet economy collapsed when the U.S. President Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" project was announced. The said project never saw the light of day, and we know now that it was not feasible with 1980s technology. Still, such a bluff sufficed to dismantle the immovable Soviet system in 1991. For the sake of remembering, a CIA report depicted a "strong and growth creating economic infrastructure" in the Soviet Union in 1985. Things can go much faster than Putin's expectations.
Last Update: October 06, 2015 02:01