Everyone has lost in Syria
Every country involved in the Syria quagmire has lost. The main victims are Syrians who have lost their future.

Syria is now totally destroyed, half of its population is in exile, within or out of the country. There has been a terrible ‘brain drain' in a country where the qualified workforce was already scarce



Aleppo has fallen into the hands of the forces that support the Assad regime. These forces are very diverse and mostly irregular. The Russian Air Force has probably been the biggest factor in the fate of the war. In the beginning, Russian pilots gradually replaced Syrian warplane pilots who had declined in number due to casualties and defections but it quickly became clear that the Syrian forces were insufficient in the fight against opposition, leading to intervention by the Russian Air Force on a large scale. Air coverage usually defines the fate of a conflict. The Russian Air Force, which was in a deplorable state just a few years ago, has since demonstrated its operational capacity. This is not very astounding.Russia has lost two jets while trying to land on an aircraft carrier and one jet has been downed by the Turkish Air Force for violating Turkish airspace. This happened during operations in which the Russian Air Force did not encounter any real noticeable opposition from counter aircraft. Also, the Syrian Air Force, loyal to Assad, performed much worse things by hitting civilian targets with barrel bombs.On the other hand, Iran has been on the battlefield for at least four years, if not longer. Initially, Iranian officers replaced most of the Syrian officers who had fled Assad's army. Gradually, Iran has sent in its own forces, disguised as local Shiite militias. They have also been supervising and training foreign militias, mostly Shiite, coming from many different countries. Iran waged this war as it has done in all other conflicts since losing the war in Iraq, through proxy forces.The U.S. and France have been sending air force support to fight Daesh, whose emergence and role in the conflict remains obscure. The Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, who have been allowed to gain control over a large strip of land along the Turkish border, were sent there by the regime, whose forces retreated to make space for the Democratic Union Party (PYD), an affiliated branch of the PKK terrorist organization. One of the Baath regime's biggest skills was how to play the Kurds off against the Turks. It is worth remembering that while he was in liberty and fighting Turkish security forces, the leader of PKK Abdullah Öcalan lived in security in Damascus. Fighters for the PKK's Syrian offshoot the PYD were heralded as gallant soldiers fighting against the despicable militants of Daesh. The wave of sympathy Kurds enjoy in Europe has helped to consolidate the latter image. Only now have people begun to understand the real role played by the PYD in helping and supporting the unlawful Assad regime in its ethnic cleansing of towns that it occupies.Prior to 2011, Turkey tried to support the regime in Syria, exerting efforts to assist in a smooth democratic transition in the country. Most of its efforts proved to be in vain however, as the Assad regime never wanted to have a transition to any sort of pluralistic society. The "liberalization" of Syria, as seen by Assad, was a distribution of the public wealth and money to his entourage through so-called "private" consortia. Nicolas Hénin, in his book "The Jihad Academy" has diligently demonstrated this oligarchic restructuring of Syrian society.Syria is now totally destroyed. Half of its population is in exile, insıde or outside of the country. There has been a terrible brain drain, in a country where a qualified workforce was already scarce. Urban infrastructure has been almost completely destroyed, and today Aleppo looks like Warsaw did in 1944. There is also a more threatening analogy with Madrid in 1939. Democratic countries have failed to show their deterrence vis-à-vis authoritarian regimes. Fortunately, the "totalitarian regimes" of the region, namely the Russian Federation and Iran, are not in a position to wage a global war at all. But the Middle East has been pushed into a state that will guarantee turmoil for years to come. By refusing to show its willingness to stop Assad's atrocities in 2012, the Obama administration probably made its biggest mistake. France and Turkey have not been able to organize air operations without the U.S., and the opportunity to give breathing space to the Syrian democratic opposition was lost once and for all. The latter does not exist anymore, perhaps only in the minds of incurable optimists. The Syrian people are squeezed between a totalitarian regime, Kurdish nationalism, radical armed opposition and poverty.Everybody lost. Russia is not the Soviet Union of the Cold War. It basically depends on the energy exports to the West. Their strained relations with the EU will not become any better, and if the oil prices remain as low as they are for another couple of years, the Russian economy will be a sorry sight. Iran, having shown its capacity to do evil in the region, is enjoying a terrible Pyrrhic victory, having probably lost all its perspective of normalization in the international arena.The U.S. has been showing their "paper tiger" side, which can be extremely dangerous for the decade to come, not only in the Middle East but also elsewhere in the world. The EU, already in a deep domestic maelstrom, did not need such a slap in the face in Syria, despite their genuine will to play a positive role, especially France.Turkey, hosting 3 million refugees whose hopes of returning to their homeland have been vanished, have to deal with a very young and dynamic population that will have to be integrated into Turkish society. This will be a first for Turkey. What has been done up until now mainly included providing humanitarian help. Now it is high time to sit on the working table and prepare a functioning infrastructure of education for young Syrians in Turkey. The task will not be easy.As a final regret, let me say once again that what Turkey wanted back in 2009 was to establish a free trade area between Turkey itself, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. It sounds like a pipe dream today. This is what we also have lost, the perspective of enlarging the spirit and the system of the European integration in the Middle East. Our setback is much deeper than it looks.