Twilight Zone or Anno Domini 2016
We have a global world but we remain far from having a global society, a global governance
What the world is going through can be best described by the name of a famous old serial, "the Twilight Zone." It is bestriding daily reality and unnamed atrocities. The magnitude of bad news and terrible events that is coming through the mass media is gradually putting an unbearable stress upon the public.
What was seen as very abnormal has started to become a routine event. What was happening a few years ago in remote and peripheral countries has started to happen in the middle of highly sophisticated urban centers. Recently, a Russian ambassador has been assassinated in cold blood in front of rolling cameras in the Turkish capital Ankara.
External relations have become a total quagmire, especially in the Middle East, the Caucasian region, Northern and Central Africa, without forgetting east Asia where systemic ethnic cleansing by Myanmar authorities is being carried out.
The international agenda devotes more attention to non-state actors, most of them illegal terror organizations, than to states and legitimate representatives. In regions and countries in turmoil, international relief organizations or voluntary associations remain more credible witnesses than state representatives.
Social media has become a main source of information. This has created an immense quantity of input that is not controllable nor confirmed. Immense time and energy are lost in order to "analyze" and most of the time refute the information received or transmitted through social media.
In such periods, where traditional ways of policy-making and governance are severely challenged, the radical views and movements find fertile ground to develop and become dangerous. This is happening in very structured and seemingly solid democratic regimes. When the far-right inspired conservatism takes power in Poland or Hungary, it becomes a nuisance for only the European Union. When a very unexpected outsider gets elected president of the United States, he creates a huge sense of unpredictability all over the world.
Predictability remains the key word for any kind of development, whether it is economic, social or political. For countries like Turkey, in need of importing capital through investments and borrowing, unpredictability is the worst thing that can happen.
The whole year of 2016 has been impregnated with nasty surprises and unpredictable events. It would thus not be erroneous to call it an "annus horribilis." What is dreadful is that the coming 2017 doesn't bode very well either.
There are some, albeit few, positive developments in sight. The European Commission, using its prerogatives, has taken the initiative to start negotiations with the Turkish government to modernize and revise the customs union. In that endeavor, it has asked the Council of Ministers to be given a mandate to negotiate. The European Commission, by virtue of founding treaties, remains the guardian of these treaties and is entitled to take any step necessary to ensure the smooth functioning of the European Union.
This will be a very good gesture and an important step to enhance and consolidate our economic and regulatory ties. In such "twilight zone" periods, it is of the utmost importance that democratic regimes increase their cooperation and deepen their interactions.
Besides that, except for some good performances by football teams in European competitions, there is not much tangible good news. We do not have enough inputs to see what the developments in U.S. policy will be in the region and in the world under a Donald Trump administration. Perhaps also as importantly, we have to see the results of both the French and German electoral contests by next spring.
In an ever globalizing world, national governments suffer deeply from the limitations of their influence and power. We have a global world but we remain far from having a global society, a global governance (with the notable but weakened exception of the EU). In that sense, the internal developments of the EU and its relations with Turkey will be of vital importance in 2017.
What was seen as very abnormal has started to become a routine event. What was happening a few years ago in remote and peripheral countries has started to happen in the middle of highly sophisticated urban centers. Recently, a Russian ambassador has been assassinated in cold blood in front of rolling cameras in the Turkish capital Ankara.
External relations have become a total quagmire, especially in the Middle East, the Caucasian region, Northern and Central Africa, without forgetting east Asia where systemic ethnic cleansing by Myanmar authorities is being carried out.
The international agenda devotes more attention to non-state actors, most of them illegal terror organizations, than to states and legitimate representatives. In regions and countries in turmoil, international relief organizations or voluntary associations remain more credible witnesses than state representatives.
Social media has become a main source of information. This has created an immense quantity of input that is not controllable nor confirmed. Immense time and energy are lost in order to "analyze" and most of the time refute the information received or transmitted through social media.
In such periods, where traditional ways of policy-making and governance are severely challenged, the radical views and movements find fertile ground to develop and become dangerous. This is happening in very structured and seemingly solid democratic regimes. When the far-right inspired conservatism takes power in Poland or Hungary, it becomes a nuisance for only the European Union. When a very unexpected outsider gets elected president of the United States, he creates a huge sense of unpredictability all over the world.
Predictability remains the key word for any kind of development, whether it is economic, social or political. For countries like Turkey, in need of importing capital through investments and borrowing, unpredictability is the worst thing that can happen.
The whole year of 2016 has been impregnated with nasty surprises and unpredictable events. It would thus not be erroneous to call it an "annus horribilis." What is dreadful is that the coming 2017 doesn't bode very well either.
There are some, albeit few, positive developments in sight. The European Commission, using its prerogatives, has taken the initiative to start negotiations with the Turkish government to modernize and revise the customs union. In that endeavor, it has asked the Council of Ministers to be given a mandate to negotiate. The European Commission, by virtue of founding treaties, remains the guardian of these treaties and is entitled to take any step necessary to ensure the smooth functioning of the European Union.
This will be a very good gesture and an important step to enhance and consolidate our economic and regulatory ties. In such "twilight zone" periods, it is of the utmost importance that democratic regimes increase their cooperation and deepen their interactions.
Besides that, except for some good performances by football teams in European competitions, there is not much tangible good news. We do not have enough inputs to see what the developments in U.S. policy will be in the region and in the world under a Donald Trump administration. Perhaps also as importantly, we have to see the results of both the French and German electoral contests by next spring.
In an ever globalizing world, national governments suffer deeply from the limitations of their influence and power. We have a global world but we remain far from having a global society, a global governance (with the notable but weakened exception of the EU). In that sense, the internal developments of the EU and its relations with Turkey will be of vital importance in 2017.