Vive La République!


France has voted for Emmanuel Macron by a large majority. His crushing victory, against the candidate of the extreme right, Marine Le Pen, is more important than it looks at first sight, for a number of reasons.

First, he was a "no name" a year ago, an obscure minister in the manhandled government of Manuel Valls. He succeeded in 12 months to structure a movement, "En Marche," from scratch, and become the youngest president of the Fifth Republic.

Second, he incarnates a long forgotten and totally disunited political family, the center. The last time there was a notable center (mostly right) in France, it was back in 1981 with Valéry Giscard d'Estaing and Raymond Barre. He will probably have the opportunity to get an important number of seats at the coming parliamentary elections. But this is not to be taken for granted. There will be more surprises.

Third, the people of France are anxious, almost 90 percent of the public think their country is going in the wrong direction. Nonetheless, this despair did not translate into a populist vote. Le Pen was largely rejected; despite getting twice the number of votes her father got in 1993. In France, common sense and moderation have won against irredentist ignorance and verbal violence.

Fourth, and certainly not the least important issue, at a time when European integration is described as the origin of all the member states' economic problems, Emmanuel Macron has conducted an extremely pro-European campaign and won. This is, in the words of Dominique de Villepin, former premier from the conservative right, "une grande première pour les démocraties" (This is a wonderful first for democracies).

Now that he has been elected, as the youngest President of the Fifth Republic, and the youngest president of any French Republic, Macron has five years to gain success. Not more. His success will be a litmus test to counter the rise of the fascistic right but also the "nationalistic stances" of the far left.

Macron has to win the coming parliamentary elections to secure a majority of seats in parliament. The French system is called semi-presidential because it keeps a very important role for the Assemblée Nationale and the Sénat, the bicameral parliament.

The parliamentary elections are very different. They are organized in small, uninominal constituencies, in two rounds. Usually, once the president is elected, his followers obtain a comfortable majority of seats in the lower chamber. This is certainly true for presidents who have been supported by established, conventional political parties, but this is not the case for Macron, who had to establish a political movement just before the elections. He has already proven his ability to structure a winning political movement in very little time. But this could be different.

Macron won 24 percent in the first round, and 65 percent in the second round. Two voters out of three were not convinced by his performance in the first round, but in a very healthy reaction chose to support him against Le Pen. Macron will have to govern taking into consideration the very different sensibilities that took him to the presidency. Jacques Chirac, elected in 1993 against Jean Marie Le Pen with an outstanding 82 percent of the votes in the second round, never took into consideration any opening beyond his political party. That gave us Nicolas Sarkozy five years later. Macron should not repeat the same mistake.

The 35 percent of votes that went to Marine Le Pen, despite her nullity, incompetence and aggressiveness, demonstrate on the other hand that one voter out of three feels desperate. This is a very important signal sent to the new ruling team. Laurent Joffrin, the chief editorialist at Libération, wrote a prophetic sentence: "Une République qu'une bonne partie du peuple abandonne n'est plus une République" - A Republic deserted by an important portion of its people is not a Republic.

So yes, Vive la République… and Macron Président… But he has to find a way to be listened to by the one third that voted for Le Pen. Furthermore, he has to find a way to listen to them and show he understands.