What was being dreaded over the last few months has unfortunately happened. The German government, through the declaration made by Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, has taken a hostile stance against the current Turkish government and president. I have had many opportunities and time to write about the importance of good relations between Turkey and Germany, underlining the risks of a full-fledged public altercation between the two states.
After the arrest of Peter Steudtner at a meeting held on the Princes' Islands of Istanbul, on the grounds of conspiracy and collusion with terrorist organizations, Germany as a whole lost its temper. Cutting short a holiday, Gabriel returned to Berlin and made a thunderous speech. He emphasized that his views and anger reflected those of Chancellor Angela Merkel, underlining the existence of a very large bi-partisan stance vis-à-vis Turkey. In any case, other political parties in the opposition, like the Left Party or the Greens remain very critical of Turkey, and therefore, Steudner's arrest has consolidated a united front of all national political forces in Germany against Turkey. This is a very high price to pay for a spying story.
Gabriel's declaration contained very powerful measures to be taken against Turkey: The German government has issued new travel warnings of risks in Turkey for German tourists and Gabriel said his government could no longer guarantee German corporate investment in Turkey after Ankara accused several companies of ties to the cult of Fetullah Gülen. Gabriel also said he could not envisage talks on expanding the customs union to Turkey and would talk to other EU leaders about reviewing pre-accession funds offered Ankara.
This is probably the first time since the establishment of the Federal Republic of Germany that a crisis of such magnitude has erupted between the two countries. Erdoğan reacted, in his usual style, quite harshly to the German accusations, absolutely refuting the fact that German companies have been sued or investigated. Erdoğan went on insisting that those who have been arrested have not been prosecuted because of their professional affiliations, but because of their ties to terrorist groups such as the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) or the PKK and its affiliates. In view of the sorry state of the judiciary in Turkey and the very clumsy way it prosecutes people, it is hard to see how such an argument could be taken seriously by the EU.
On the other hand, Erdoğan has a point when he denounces the "lenient" attitude of Germany concerning PKK-affiliated associations and networks, let alone the very bizarre immunity granted to FETÖ proponents. It is a fact that "neither the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), nor most of the Turks will ever sleep easily as long as they know there might be another coup attempt by a religious fanatic and his brain-washed acolytes," as Demon H. Grande wrote in PA Intelligence. The same writer, albeit very critical of the Turkish government, also emphasizes the unpalatable attitude of the U.S. and EU regarding Gülen's criminal organization: "I spend most of my time in Turkey and share its citizens' amazement at the West's inaction on Pastor [sic] Gülen and his vast network of minions who still try to destabilize the country."
However, Germany is not the only Western country being lenient to terrorist organizations in Turkey. This is, however, the only country where a very sizable Turkish diaspora live, the country with whom Turkey has immense interaction with industrial technology and production, the only country with whom the Turkish Navy and Armed Forces cooperate very closely on defense issues, the country with the largest foreign direct investments in Turkey, the country that sends most of its tourists for vacations to Turkish coastal areas in summer, and this list could go on forever. Briefly, this is not a country with whom Turkey can afford to be on very hostile terms.
Erdoğan's tough response to Gabriel probably won him large support among the Turkey's population in the short term. However, he has already toned down his criticism by emphasizing that both countries are NATO members and bound by very strong institutional and traditional ties. Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım advocated moderation in his public statements. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and EU Minister Ömer Çelik met yesterday in Brussels with High EU Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini and Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn. If there is not a détente soon between Turkey and Germany, any of the three measures announced by Gabriel, which are tourism via travel warning, foreign trade via cutting off export guarantees and direct investments via cutting investment credits, could cause very deep wounds. It could also take decades to normalize relations once they have been so badly damaged. Therefore, I conclude this article by sending a mayday message to all countries supporting Turkey and Turkish society as a whole. We have to come to normal terms with Germany as soon as possible.