After the parliamentary elections in Germany, almost every analyst (including yours truly) was convinced that a coalition government would become the obvious outcome in a rather short laps of time. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), having lost an important percentage of votes, and more importantly having failed to insufflate new motivation through new leadership, has decided to stay in opposition of such an idea.

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) of Chancellor Angela Merkel, despite having achieved one of the worst results in its history, remained the anchor political force for the formation of a government. Merkel declared this issue in the first declaration she made after the election results were known. She said that no government could be formed without the CDU/CSU.

This was correct, but she said this without taking into consideration the political stance opted by the Free Democratic Party (FDP). They have been the "kingmakers" of the Federal Republic for decades. Hans-Dietrich Genscher, the historic leader of the FDP, has been the immovable minister of interior first and foreign affairs later under Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl.

This time though, Christian Lindner, the new leader of the FDP, has decided to move away from coalition talks, on the grounds that the three possible coalition partners did not do enough to forge a common denominator for government.

"Not governing is better than bad governance," he said. Off went the historic "kingmaker." The failure of the talks marks a striking departure for a country that had long prided itself on its post-war record of government stability and political consensus.

Germany has had a very long period of political stability, mainly due to two essential reasons. The first and foremost reason was that for any German government after 1949, the main issue was to "normalize" Germany. This was true for Adenauer, Erhard, Kiesinger, Brandt, Schmidt and even for Kohl. Only after the reunification, which definitely symbolized that a page was turned, Germany felt somehow normalized. The priority has ceased to be "stability and political consensus at all costs."

The second reason was the political distribution of votes. In 1972, for instance, the SPD gained 45.8 percent of the votes, the CDU/CSU 44.9 percent, the FDP 8.4 percent and all the others less than 1 percent. This was a bi-partisan political scenery, with a small party of intellectuals, the FDP, in the role of the "kingmaker." Helmut Schmidt lost the chancellery to Kohl in 1982, not because he really lost the elections, but because the FDP terminated its coalition with the SPD and chose the CDU/CSU as its new government partner.

Today, the political distribution of the seats in Bundestag is very different, there are seven political forces represented (counting the CDU and the CSU separately), therefore the arithmetic of a coalition majority has become much more complicated. The Federal Republic of Germany is very much just another democratic country in Europe, its parliament reflects the diversity of its public opinion. There is no danger to see the "normalized" status of Germany being lost, even if there is a government crisis.

Chancellor Merkel is right about one point, not only will there be no government without her party, but very likely, there will be no challenge to her leadership within the party in the foreseeable future. She tried to calm down the heated debate by giving extra time to coalition talks, after Christmas, and by sending a strong message to the SPD again for a "grand coalition."

The trouble is the fact that Germany "normalized" long ago, but for all the other European leaders, Germany remains a "particular" country that "owes" to all other European partners.

Now that the EU needs a boost and new motivation, all eyes are on Emmanuel Macron, who definitely is a charismatic, attractive young leader. Nevertheless, the only European leader who without hesitation declared an "open doors policy" towards forced migration remains Angela Merkel. The one European leader who, back in 2004, proposed the formation of a purely European military alliance was Chancellor Kohl. In both cases, all the other EU partners had cold feet and did not follow German proposals.

The issue is not that Germany does not have the capacity to assume European Union leadership. It does not really want to be the only one at the helm, France's contribution is still very important. However, Germany does not really have the self-confidence to follow-up its ideas on European integration. Still, it is only a matter of time; mentalities take much longer time to change than facts.

Yes Germany, although unwillingly, leads the EU today and Turkey's relations with Germany are in that sense more vital than ever.