Many analysts, including myself, awaited the summit between Turkey and the EU in Varna with growing anxiety. Well, it has gone rather smoothly, and the feeling of relief to see the institutional network of our relations standing still is great after so much bad news had accumulated. Obviously, there were good and bad aspects of the meeting called summit by the Turkish side and only a leader's meeting by the EU.
The good news is that obviously the EU has decided to tune down its harsh rhetoric against the Turkish government, probably because of the fact that the escalating verbal disputes have gone too far. It is not only the migration issue and the relevant deal that are at stake, but also security, the fight against terrorism, energy transportation, the rise of the extreme-right and finally and most importantly, the very intricate international situation where everyone needs traditional allies more than ever.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in public, did not change at all his admonitions, but the tone was much softer and accommodating than usual. Donald Tusk, representing the Council of Ministers, has also enumerated the EU's grievances against Turkey with a monochord voice, without putting any emphasis on his critics. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, an old warhorse in European politics, has been much more at ease with his declaration than Donald Tusk. Not that Juncker said something very different from Tusk, but he airbrushed his intervention with a lot of praise for Turkey and the Turks, making jokes and bringing some sympathy to a tense atmosphere.
On a positive note, the EU is not turning its back on Turkey and would like to see Turkey "resume the reform process." This is all for the time being and does not come without conditions. Having not been at the table with the leaders in Varna, it is very difficult and hazardous to make speculations about the deals that were cut or offered behind closed doors. However, one thing is certain — and Juncker said it as if he was making a joke — is the return of the two Greek officers apprehended in Turkish territory back to Greece before Easter. The date falls at the beginning of April when the progress report for Turkey will be made public. So a word to the wise, Erdoğan's counter demand was the visa-free travel agreement as soon as possible. In short, just by listening to the press conference, the only visible deal was that.On practically all the other issues, very diverging views remain. Juncker wanted to stress the positive aspects of our relations. It reminded me of the period before the completion of the customs union when we were told by commission representatives to "stress the positive" in our relations - and by the way forget about the Fourth Financial Protocol worth 600 million euros that never materialized.
Regarding Cyprus, Greece and the military operation in Afrin, the EU and Turkey are on opposite sides. We do not know what the Turkish position was when Tusk asked about the shortcomings in various fields of democratic functioning in Turkey. He declared in the press conference that no agreement had been reached in those areas, meaning there has not been a real dialogue, but probably both sides declaimed their views in front of each other.
Juncker heavily insisted on the continuation of the framework of accession negotiations. This is the best news, because what was dreaded was precisely that: An official severing of accession negotiations, which would be reciprocated by Turkey probably suspending political ties with the EU. The accession negotiations were frozen de facto and de jure recently by the decision of the Council of Ministers of the EU. Nevertheless, they can resume somehow someday, and the EU does not wish to ignite a large-scale political crisis over a moribund but politically useful process. The EU has bigger fish to fry.
The Varna Summit was not to the taste of everyone, including Kati Piri, the European Parliament's rapporteur for Turkey, who said Varna was only to Erdoğan's advantage. This seems correct for the time being, but not shutting the door in the face of Turkey is not letting Turkey in, and we will probably see in coming days and weeks the conditions for normalizing our relations with the EU. Turkey has obtained a respite, which is a relief, but for the time being, this is only that, a respite.