Why does the AK Party delay declaration of its presidential candidate?


It is understandable that the opposition needed some time to settle on a presidential candidate. But how can one explain the fact that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) delays announcing its almost evident candidate until the very last moment? Some analysts, who were engrossed in wishful thinking at the early stages of the selection process, posited that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's candidacy was a slim possibility. Some argued that Erdogan would want exercise his powers as prime minister to obviate the ongoing contention with the Gülen Movement. Others claimed that there was a concern about the possibility of the AK Party taking an authoritarian turn as Turkey will transition into a presidential system after Erdogan's election.Admittedly, Erdogan wanted to become president from the beginning and there has been no discussion about him deserving the position. After all, the task of dealing with the Gülen Movement's affiliates within the bureaucracy will fall on the judiciary and the evidence available is strong enough to resolve the matter within the framework of the law. Erdogan's election as president will not only not halt this process of cleansing but also help him assume a more balanced position by keeping a safe distance from the struggle. Recent charges of authoritarianism, meanswhile, serve an instrumental role within the context of overthrowing the AK Party government. Although more than a few members of the party might believe that Erdogan's tone and affinity to micromanagement are problematic, it is hard to come by a lot of people who would identify these phenomane as indicative of authoritarianism. Moreover, Erdogan's ability to interfere in every small detail will naturally diminish when he assumes the presidency.As such, the delay in the AK Party's of its formal announcement until the legal deadline has little to do with the presidency. Perhaps they may have intended to leave the opposition in a limbo for a few days more and undermine their campaign by forcing them to announce their candidate before the ruling party. This, too, however, could not have been more than a secondary issue. The main reason behind the delay was to find answers to key questions such as who would assume the role of prime minister and AK Party chairman as well as how the two or three leaders could have a functional working relationship when Erdogan wins the presidency. This may be surprising for many observers, but the AK Party has initiated a genuine consultation mechanism to pick everybody's brains down to the lowest levels of the party organization. This approach is quite rational: the AK Party has close ties with its social base and depends on the people's approval in each election. The party, therefore, finds itself compelled to employ and claim democratic methods.Consequently, who the next prime minister will be represents a question just as important as who shall replace Abdullah Gül, since Erdogan clearly stated he would not be a passive president and would exercise all his powers to the full extent of the law. As such, what we need is a prime minister who consents to Erdogan's idea of the presidency and can establish the right boundaries with him under these terms. For the time being, Davutoglu remains the frontrunner for the prime ministry. However, this candidate, albeit technically and politically qualified, has a limited influence over the party bureaucracy and grassroots organizations. Davutoglu becoming both prime minister and party chairman, therefore, is a rather small possibility.In this regard, it will be necessary to find a chairman who can work with both Erdogan and Davutoglu. The AK Party is an organization that, rather than being tied to the leader's apron strings, rests on a delicate balance between numerous religious and social groups - which calls for a solution that would receive everyone's blessing.There is, of course, another alternative: Gül settling for working with Erdogan and assuming the role of both prime minister and party chairman. This is a possibility that we cannot cross out until the very last moment, but it is obvious that it is not an easily workable solution.