Davutoğlu and Erdoğan


The new cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu reveals how the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) views the new term. It will be a period of transition - the government will use its influence on fundamental issues and try to win the 2015 general elections with a majority of the vote. Rather than details and trivia, the crucial problems of Turkey including the Kurdish reconciliation process will be on the agenda and the party will go to the polls with the success achieved in these matters.However, this is not the most popular topic of the political agenda. Everyone is wondering how the relation between the new prime minister and the president will be, whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will exceed his constitutional limits and whether he is willing to chair the cabinet. First, it is required to say that any kind of violation of the Constitution is beside the point since there is no need for that. An interventionist president would create problems only when he has to work with a prime minister he disagrees with. But Erdoğan and Davutoğlu display similar approaches to almost every topic. Also, there is an important nuance that would prevent a possible problem - Davutoğlu is basically a technocrat, which means that he does not appeal to an audience in search of doing politics or making a career. Consequently, we can easily foresee that the inner tensions in the party and the developments regarding the party's organization will mostly be controlled by Erdoğan, and Davutoğlu will not be opposed to it.Besides, the prime minister and the president already have an organic relationship with each other. Above all, it is clear that the new government is also Erdoğan's cabinet at the same time. As a matter of fact, on the first day of his presidency, Erdoğan met the interior, foreign and defense ministers. However, it would not be realistic to expect that Erdoğan would act as a sort of prime minister or Davutoğlu would directly rule. The implementations have been made to guarantee a ground intended to increase the administrative skills of the new prime minister. After the ground settles, Davutoğlu's chance to become a prime minister in a technical sense will increase.There is an interesting share of specialization between the president and the prime minister. During the first AK Party government, Davutoğlu was Erdoğan's advisor and a figure having a direct influence upon Erdoğan in many aspects. In terms of ideologies, Davutoğlu has more to say. However, Erdoğan has full knowledge of Turkish politics, the balances in Islamic community and the relations with bureaucracy. And probably Davutoğlu is pleased with that. This balance between ideology and politics will be sought to be maintained in the realpolitik of daily life. Also, it will not be surprising if the president tends to meet with some ministers individually with the knowledge of the prime minister. Besides, they are expected to have multiple conversations via telephone almost every day.In brief, Turkey is moving back to the partied-president era. We will observe a president who both has a strong influence on the government and relieves it at the same time. Erdoğan will continue to act as a "conductor" on critical issues. Same as before, he will not intervene much in the deeds of the ministries. But he will be active and supervise the latest developments on the subjects of the reconciliation process and struggle against the Gülenist sub-groups in bureaucracy. Along with that, he will not leave the prime minister alone in protecting the party's integrity and preparing the party for the next election. We will even witness that Erdoğan will arrange trails across the country and give interviews to TV channels as the election date approaches.So this is Davutoğlu's government, but also a part of the AK Party government headed by Erdoğan. There is no possibility, wish or intention to move out of this ruling perception. The AK Party is preparing to outpace its opponents in the following year.