The Republican People's Party's (CHP) 18th extraordinary congress ended as incumbent party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu wished, however, the risk that accompanied Kılıçdaroğlu's victory has laid a heavy burden on him. Kılıçdaroğlu directly appointed eight members of the 60-member party assembly and only four out of the remaining 52 members were not elected by the party assembly. To paraphrase, a total of 56 out of 60 members were elected from the chairman's list. It is not difficult to predict that this result will considerably strengthen Kılıçdaroğlu's hand. When Kılıçdaroğlu's speech at the congress is taken into consideration, how he will exploit this power is easily foreseen.One of the most critical points of his speech was the lack of discipline within the party. Kılıçdaroğlu complained of the fact that the ideas, which are produced at "rakı tables" and go against the party line, are leaked to the media without being talked about in the party. He described this as the "individual left" and said that he strived to transfer it to the "popular left." The message that he gave at the end of this analysis was quite strict: "Henceforth, I will not allow this type of behavior and I will cleanse the party of these figures." Kılıçdaroğlu also stressed in that there would not be a liquidation movement, which indicates that the intra-party opposition will be given a second chance. It is obvious that the expulsion of some figures from the party will work to the detriment of the party in a time when Turkey is gearing up for general elections. It is also understood that if these incidents persist, the party administration will take a much harder line. Any congress speech in which the CHP chairman has to use the words "no liquidation," means the confession of the fact that there is an open threat and deep fracturing in the party.Kılıçdaroğlu holds the reins of power at such a level that it no longer has a rationale behind it. At this point, he cannot accuse the intra-party dissenters of being stumbling block as it reminds him of the risks he will face. There are only eight months left before the general elections and during this eight-month period everything in the CHP will be done as Kılıçdaroğlu wishes. Despite all this, if they undergo another electoral defeat, it will be inevitable to embark on a quest for a new chairman. The sociological characteristics of the electorate and their political preferences do not have the possibility to change in such a little time. So, if we are to make a realistic prediction about the forthcoming election, this picture reveals that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the CHP will receive 48 and 26 percent respectively. This foreshadows a period of great turmoil for the CHP after 2015.The intra-party opposition will feel as if it is on holiday until the elections and Muharrem İnce's nomination against Kılıçdaroğlu was just thought to open a way. In a model where congress members are elected by the chairman, to which extent could it be possible that a different chairman be elected by the votes of these members? With this move, the intra-party opposition intimidated the party administration and consolidated the coalition of dissenters that will come after the potential defeat in 2015. Perhaps İnce wanted to not win the congress election, as it would be unreasonable to shoulder the party heading toward another electoral failure. Moreover, as the majority of provincial organizations are assigned or approved by Kılıçdaroğlu, it was not clear how many of these organizations would support İnce. Had İnce become the party leader, it would not be surprising if the CHP's voting rate drops to 20 percent.It is obvious that the intra-party opposition make this analysis themselves. For now, they have fired a warning shot against Kılıçdaroğlu to make him see the major attack that he will encounter in 2015. The CHP is on the brink of hitting the wall.