The HDP’s dance with the election threshold


As the 2015 general election approaches, the Peoples' Democratic Party's (HDP) decision to run in the election as a party rather than as independent candidates is becoming a main topic on Turkey's political agenda. This is a natural outcome of the fact that depending on whether the HDP passes the election threshold of 10 percent or not, we will face two very different parliaments, and the government's scope of action will change considerably based on the result. In this regard, issues that will be affected most are a new constitution and a presidential system, since the HDP's absence from Parliament may enable the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to increase the number of its deputies above the required minimum in order to issue a new constitution on its own without opposition.The question is, why has the HDP made such a decision? The argument of "Türkiyelilik" -Turkey-ness or, being from Turkey - may be the reason behind this decision. A political party that adopts such an argument is expected to aim for votes from all over Turkey and develop a far-reaching election strategy in line with this target. The fact that HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş received almost 10 percent of the vote in the presidential election is another important factor. If the HDP joins the election with independent candidates, it would imply that it does not trust its voting rate and projects a message of weakness. So the psychological need for a resolution that urges the HDP to not step back seems to have triggered the party administration's decision to enter the election as a party. Despite the fact that all of these arguments present the HDP as an "independent" party, the main decision is made in the Qandil Mountains, and from this point of view, it is seen that the HDP entering the elections as a party is described as a win-win situation. In other words, if the HDP passes the election threshold, it will enter Parliament with a high number of deputies and its power to negotiate with the government will increase. If it fails to pass the threshold, the Kurdish political movement cannot be represented in Parliament and this energy will filter down toward the streets and protest activities. Thus, the influence from the Qandil Mountains will increase and it will actually become an interlocutor. This situation will make it possible to switch to an autonomous government in the region with some de facto steps such as making certain provinces and neighborhoods into "cantons."Another question is the plausibility of this approach. First of all, passing the election threshold does not necessarily mean having a greater number of deputies in Parliament. As revealed by the presidential election, the most accessible segment of the electorate for the HDP is Kurdish people who support the AK Party in the region. However, as the HDP already has around 50 percent of the vote from this constituency, receiving more votes will not increase the number of its deputies. Calculations show that if the HDP passes the election threshold with votes from this region, it can add only five or six deputies to the existing number. Therefore, the Kurdish vote alone is not enough for the HDP, which needs to open up to the western side of the country if it wants to achieve a true increase in its votes.At this point, we had better re-think how the HDP's thesis, which is suggestive of blackmailing and the argument: "Think what will happen if we stay outside Parliament," will impact the electorate. The HDP and the Qandil Mountains are mainly aiming to drive the AK Party into a tight corner, but it is really hard for them to attract votes from main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) supporters by utilizing such a discourse. In short, the HDP should convincingly change its discourse. If the PKK's jailed leader, Abdullah Öcalan, officially declares that the armed struggle in Turkey has ended in late March, and the Qandil Mountains embrace the reconciliation process by reaffirming it with a separate declaration, the HDP might be enabled to receive votes both from Kurds and western Turkey. In this case, it will not be surprising if the HDP passes the election threshold by appealing to both the east and west of the country. Obviously, this will be welcomed by the AK Party, as the legitimate ground of the reconciliation process will expand in this way, a significant majority that goes beyond a single party will be achieved in Parliament and a new constitution within this framework would become possible. The HDP and Qandil Mountains might have wanted to make a move to force the opposing party, but it seems that they are also on the brink of a critical decision. It all comes down to whether they are ready to see the political consequences of accepting to play the "game" by the rules of democracy.