The most critical question regarding the general elections that will be held next week is whether the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) will exceed the 10 percent election threshold to enter Parliament or not. Their exceeding the threshold is assessed with a possible decrease in votes for the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), and new ruling power possibilities are pictured with regard to this possibility. However, the final situation will not be much different as long as the AK Party's votes remain around 45 percent regardless of whether the HDP exceeds the threshold or not. In other words, the AK Party will reach the required number of deputies to be able to form a majority government but remain under the number that is required to hold a referendum for a new constitution on its own. When looked at from this perspective, the HDP exceeding the threshold is a largely exaggerated factor. The party already has roughly 30 deputies, and this number will rise to 50 to 60 when it exceeds the threshold. And when we assume that the majority of the extra 20 to 30 deputies will come from the AK Party, it can be estimated that the number of AK Party deputies will decline by about 20. Also, when the possibility of a few points decrease in the AK Party's proportion of votes to the previous general elections is added, the result seems to be about 280 to 285 deputies. On the other hand, a few points decrease in votes would keep the number of AK Party deputies around 300 to 310 if the HDP cannot exceed the threshold. Therefore, in the final analysis, there will be no great difference in terms of political results. Nevertheless, it should be taken into consideration that the HDP's exceeding the threshold has a crucial meaning at least in psychological terms. According to the results, a quite different atmosphere will be formed both among Kurdish politics and secular/left-wing groups. If the party passes the threshold, Kurdish politics is expected to gradually depart from armed conflict and integrate into democratic politics, progressing on the line of becoming a part of Turkey's political landscape. But there is no guarantee for that because this direction also implies a change of balances in Kurdish politics. For instance, the civil politics represented by the HDP might dominate the Qandil Mountains, the headquarters of the outlawed PKK. The real question at this point is to what extent the PKK leadership is ready for this and how it will adapt to such a situation. If past experiences are considered, it seems highly possible that they might attempt to impose direct oppression on the HDP's parliamentary group and try to dominate the HDP's policies by creating de facto situations. So categorically, there is not a right answer to the question whether it is better for the HDP to pass the threshold or not in terms of the progress of the reconciliation process. On the contrary, if the HDP happens to pass the threshold, it will be regarded as a victory and celebrated with great enthusiasm by the left-wing and secular groups, which view the issue as an anti-AK Party fight and a disposal of their feelings of defeat. In the contrary case, it will be hard to prevent their fall into severe depression. So, what do field studies indicate? Firstly, it is required to underline that it is not very possible for field studies conducted with roughly 2,000 individuals to calculate the real voting rate for the HDP. But if the calculations reflect reality, there is no bad news for the HDP. It would not be surprising if the participation rate in the country is at least 85 percent in the elections. And when we add the voters in Europe, it seems that the threshold can only be passed with 4.8 million votes. And 300,000 of these will come from Europe. Consequently, for the HDP, the real threshold is to receive 4.5 million votes. On the other hand, even though the voting rates might decline toward election day with a decrease in swing voters, currently almost all survey companies agree on the estimation of roughly 5 million. In any case, Kurdish politics will continue to take over a crucial role in the near future. What really matters is whether this role will be positive or not and how political pluralism will be administered by? Kurds.