Global chaos or how many poles does the world have?


The present world order is undergoing a turbulent period of political re-ordering that is too bloody and costly to deserve the name "creative destruction." Its principal character is the absence of a center that can hold the system together and point to a certain destination. From the Ukrainian crisis to the threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the world is witnessing a disruptive reordering process. A chaotic multiple polarity is redefining the main fault lines of a dysfunctional global system. Known world history has had its moments of global upheaval. Each came with its own set of conditions, some destructive, some promising, and each moment contained in it the future realignments of the global order. The ancient Persians had dominated much of Mesopotamia and Anatolia and confined the Greeks to their small city-states. But they were soon pushed to the margins of history by the Romans. The Romans established one of the greatest empires in world history after bitter infighting during the period of the Roman Republic. But the Roman Empire ended up in pieces as well, paving the way for the rise of dozens of small, weak states in Europe. It also prepared the ground for the rise of the Ottomans who ruled much of the former eastern Roman lands and new Muslim territories. The Ottomans ruled with strength and discipline but their reign was far from being a unipolar world order. It had its rivals in various states in Europe and the Safavids in Persia. The British Empire was the one on which the sun never set but, like all empires, its downfall was inevitable.The end of the Ottoman Empire, two world wars, and the fall of the Berlin Wall all brought chaos and destruction on one hand, and new opportunities on the other. The global order, in the various forms it has taken, swings like a pendulum between big and small powers, between a desire for order and a quest for change and between justice and power.Our current moment in world history is not different in nature or direction. The end of the two poles of power in the world after the Cold War created a simultaneous state of order and disorder. A world with multiple centers was supposed to rise and it was expected to bring a certain degree of order, peace and stability to the global structure of power. Yet a quarter of a century after the end of the Cold War, symbolized by the fall of the Berlin Wall, we are far from having any fair and sustainable order. A few years ago, the popular Arab revolutions were impossible to imagine. Yet they happened, toppling dictators in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen and promising to establish a new political order in the Arab world. But they turned out to be short-lived. The counter-revolutions reversed the clocks - now Egypt is ruled by a coup regime, Libya is in total disarray, Yemen is in chaos, Syria is entrenched in a bloody war and the rest of the Arab world is watching in pain and agony.After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was expected to enter the league of tired and benign powers. Putin and Russian gas, however, changed everything. Led by a reluctant superpower, the West did not anticipate the return of a new Russia with global ambitions under Putin. Europeans, usually looking for American leadership on big issues, spend more time trying to make the EU work than confronting regional and global challenges. The recent Ukrainian crisis unveiled the new fault lines of the current global disorder. The Russian resurgence led by Putin has unveiled the strategic fragilities of the Western alliance. How the Western block responds to the Russian challenge will shape its future. India and China are still too "tectonic" and concentrate on their social and economic performances rather than taking a strong position on global issues. This may one day change and will have huge consequences for global politics. The recent tensions between China and Japan and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's foray into redefining Japan's strategic and military power are heralding new realignments of power in the Far East.Back in Europe, the Scottish vote on independence will have long-term consequences for the territorial politics of Europe. A "yes" vote will create a new state in Europe, ending a 307-year-old union. A "no" vote will put more pressure on London and the rest of the U.K. Either way, the vote will have repercussions in Northern Ireland as well as Spain where the Basque issue remains a potentially risky one. Belgium and Canada, too, might be affected by the post-Scottish vote politics in Europe. Despite this bleak picture, there is a glimmer of hope, but it requires serious re-assessment of our political and economic priorities on a global scale. It involves establishing equilibrium between values and interests, principles and power, order and freedom and stability and justice. It depends on a balancing act between ideal-politik and realpolitik.