Turkey is a significant country not only for its neighboring regions but also for the world as a whole due to its unique geopolitical position. Regarding the ongoing Syrian civil war, for instance, Turkey continues to play a key role in managing the crisis in cooperation with Russian and Iran. Meanwhile, Turkey currently cooperates with the United States to terminate the PKK's occupation of Manbij. To cleanse the Syrian province of terror, Turkey and the U.S. have begun to carry out their agreement to leave governance of Manbij to its true owners.
Regarding the delicate political situation in Iraq, Iran and Turkey currently strive to establish political stability in their neighboring country. Turkey has also played a mediating role to resolve the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Concerning Africa, on the other hand, Turkey comes to the fore, especially in Somalia where construction of a harbor is accompanied by various endeavors to ensure the security of Somalians. As a candidate country to the European Union, Turkey's relations with the EU remain at the top of Turkey's political agenda despite its fluctuation from rapprochement to alienation. What's more, Turkey has given asylum to millions of Syrian refugees, who threaten to cross European borders. Thus, Turkey has become an indispensable partner for member states of the EU due to its candidacy to the EU, but also its key role in the Syrian crisis. Finally, Turkey continues to play its historical role as arbiter in the Middle East, such as soothing escalating tension between Israel and Iran.
Thus, Turkey's unique geopolitical position at the intersection between the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Middle East, and North Africa renders our country significant both in terms of international politics and economy. Regarding the issue of energy, Turkey emerges as a bridging country that transmits the oil and natural gas of the Middle East, Russia and Central Asia to Europe. Such a sui generis geopolitical position compels Turkey to adopt a multilateral foreign policy towards the leading players in the international realm. I believe that the recent tension between Turkey and the EU is in fact a temporary state that served to teach both sides the natural sensitivities and borders of the other side.
In this respect, Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections turn out to be an event with global reverberations. In particular, the assertive leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan further attracts the attention of foreign countries to the upcoming Turkish elections. As a legacy of their colonist past, the Western states have the vicious habit of treating non-Western states as colonies. From time to time, President Erdoğan fiercely and rightfully objected to such a colonizing attitude of the Western states. Although his resistance enraged the leaders of Western states who sought an obedient attitude, Turkey eventually succeeded acquiring the respect of international players due to its independence and self-confidence.
Presently, right before the elections, Turkey's foreign relations seem to be rejuvenated. Regarding Turkey's relations with the U.S., for instance, the PKK's removal from Manbij proves that their agreement has already come into effect. As the much-debated delivery of F-35 fighter jets will begin tomorrow, it is reasonable to predict that Turkish-American diplomatic relations will be managed prudently in the near future.
Now, all opposition political parties - the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Good Party (İP), the Felicity Party (SP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) - aim to overthrow the political power of President Erdoğan. Yet, our electoral surveys demonstrate that Erdoğan will win the elections by taking more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections. Meral Akşener, who took the political stage with great expectations, now displays serious signs of regression. By the weakening of the İP, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) seemed to pull itself together to a certain extent. Thus, the possibility of Erdoğan's winning the presidential elections in the first round currently strengthens.
Regarding the parliamentary elections, the CHP's votes seem to fluctuate between 22 percent and 27 percent of the total votes. It is our conviction that CHP presidential candidate Muharrem İnce will take 25 percent or more of the votes. On the other hand, the HDP's votes, which revolve around 9 percent, will reach at least 10 percent, which will enable the HDP to pass the electoral threshold.
Relying on its 16-year-long political power, the AK Party aspires to continue governing the country for another term with the new presidential system. Today, President Erdoğan announced the new presidential model that appears to be plain and neat with lesser ministries. In the last two days before the elections, both the ruling and the opposition political parties shall work to win over indecisive electors.
Our surveys and research demonstrate that the People's Alliance will win the elections by taking more than 50 percent of the votes. As far as today, the Turkish electorate took the elections seriously and prudently, which results in extremely high voter turnout in the elections and political stability in government. Just like oppressed peoples in our neighboring countries and regions and leading political powers in the world, we are also looking forward to learn the results of such a crucial election.