To analyze the recent elections in Turkey, it is crucial to draw the complete picture by taking the influence of social psychology, economy and international politics into account. Relying on our empirical data, one of our primary inferences is that the AK Party's electoral constituency does not want to abandon neither the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor the power domain that they themselves possess sociologically. However, regarding female voters, although the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) had always received more votes from women, the last elections proved the fall of the support of female voters towards the ruling political party.
A similar trend could be detected in the electoral attitude of Turkey's young voters: Six months before the elections, the relationship between the AK Party and young voters seemed to be improving. Our research suggested that while the AK Party's general votes were around the bar of 48 percent, the share among young voters reached 43 percent or 44 percent. The trouble was that when the youngest voters in the age range of 18-24 were included in the general electorate, the AK Party came at a disadvantage. To rejuvenate its electoral support base, the AK Party must, therefore, return to the visionary projects that reconnected young people with the latest developments in the world. Without sharing their passion for science and technology, it is possible to miss out the invaluable opportunities that the digital space provides for such a rapprochement.
Although the influence of economic factors on the elections is indisputable, the economic troubles of the Turkish economy could barely influence the elections, as they did not turn into a wholesale economic crisis.
After all, Erdoğan received votes from the constituencies of all political parties, both from his electoral allies – the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP) – and his electoral rivals. Our research, for instance, demonstrated that 85 percent of the MHP's electorate voted for Erdoğan.
As was evident in its election manifesto, the AK Party adopted a successful electoral discourse that was built upon three main topics: Firstly, its 15-year-long experience in political power that was narrated through innumerable projects and investments; secondly, its promises and future vision; and thirdly, the criticism that was being raised against itself by the opposition political parties, which was negated by realizing reforms particularly in those troubled policies. In other words, the AK Party's electoral campaign was successful.
In the field of international politics, the AK Party could have encountered fierce criticisms in the question of Turkey's foreign policy towards the U.S., the European Union, Russia, Syria and even Iran. Yet, the prudent and moderate foreign policy attitude that the AK Party recently adopted in Turkey's regional and global relations disabled such an opposition in advance.
Regarding the electoral attitude of the Turkish voters, the elections proved that the innumerable investments, which have been realized in political, economic, and cultural realms, ensure the support of at least 40 percent of the general electorate for the ruling AK Party. Yet, a new type of voter emerged in the last couple of elections: A relatively new electorate, which currently corresponds to 10-15 percent of the general electorate, who prioritize individual needs and demands rather than social investments which have already been realized to a certain extent. Indeed, we claim that individual demands of voters will be one of the leading determining factors in upcoming elections.
Therefore, instead of emphasizing the investments realized during the last 16 years, the AK Party should develop a vision for the future by showing better performance in the fields of science, industry, trade and technology.
Another successful electoral strategy that the AK Party adopted was intentional negligence of the Good Party (İP). Taking Muharrem İnce of the Republican People's Party (CHP) as his main rival, Erdoğan easily overshadowed Meral Akşener.
One could detect many reasons behind the votes that moved from the AK Party's electorate towards the MHP. Still, the primary motivation behind such a flow of votes was the voters' desire of giving a message to their own political party about the ongoing complaints about various issues from economy to local governance. Yet, it was a healthy political message, as it was moderate and prudent, because the votes moved mainly within the People's Alliance by enabling the electoral allies to form the government.
Regarding Kurdish voters, the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) did not in fact pass the electoral threshold in the eastern provinces. It was with the support from the western provinces, especially by the CHP's strategic support, that the HDP has been able to enter the Parliament. In the AK Party's case, the administrators who were assigned to a number of eastern municipalities could not attract the voters to the ruling political party despite the fact that they have realized crucial policies that are significant for the region.
Adopting a simpler and lower discourse than the language of Erdoğan, İnce succeeded in making himself heard. Leaving behind the CHP's historical baggage and turning the CHP almost invisible, İnce accomplished to ensure the support of 30 percent of the Turkish electorate. In the long run, when İnce will identify himself with the CHP's identity, such popular support will turn out to be impossible to achieve.
The AK Party's electoral victories seem to trouble certain groups in the upper middle class which are constitute educated, qualified and economically well-off individuals. Therefore, the AK Party should develop a political framework that will soothe the political anxieties of these not-so-political people.
Finally, truly high – more than 85 percent – voter turnout in the elections meant that Turkey's elections concluded with the triumph of democracy. It is something we are proud of, especially when we have observed low voter turnouts and the spread of political apathy in the Western world.