Debate about a fifth party will only hit the MHP


Those who want to finish off and divide the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) were eager to fan the debate that a fifth party may be in the offing in the next Parliament that will be elected on Nov. 1.The idea that a fifth party will emerge when the new members of Parliament are elected this Sunday came from the ultraconservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) chairman, Devlet Bahçeli. What he claimed was that the AK Party would lose in the polls and would then fall apart with defectors forming their own political party, hence the emergence of a fifth party in Parliament after the AK Party, MHP, the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Kurdish nationalist People's Democracy Party (HDP).

Bahçeli's claim was mouthwatering for those want the AK Party domination of Turkish politics to end. They immediately started to fan rumors that former President Abdullah Gül, who is a founding member of the AK Party and who served as prime minister and foreign minister as a member of the party, would lead the mavericks and thus establish this notorious fifth party.

The fact that there are those who have been criticizing the AK Party and its former ministers and that Gül has been making statements that hint he opposes the current policies of the party and that he is unhappy with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has added more fuel to the rumors.

The current trends show, however, that the AK Party will either win a slight majority and come to power on its own in Sunday's polls or will fall very short of winning a majority and will seek to enlist the help of other parties to form a coalition. This will not prompt the disintegration of the AK Party. AK Party members are glued together by common interests and even those who seem to oppose the party would not dare leave the fold.

There has to be a major political earthquake in Turkey to prompt the need to establish a new party. There is no such earthquake that will encourage the masses to seek the need of the establishment of a new party. Also, there is a persistent effort to draw Gül into the political intrigue cooked up by the adversaries of the AK Party, yet those doing this do not seem to understand that those who have deep sympathies for the party will never forgive Gül or support him if he is involved in a covert political operation. Gül himself should know well that the myth created around his name is artificial and that he is not made of leader material, he is, however, an excellent and irreplaceable second man. He would have been the balancing factor for Erdoğan in the Cabinet and things would have been much better today if he had not become president and remained as a member of the government in 2007.

A so-called fifth party may really come to being after the polls, but it will not come out of the AK Party. On the contrary, if the AK Party just misses winning a majority with a few seats, a fifth party with MHP defectors may be established and this party may join forces with the AK Party to establish a coalition dominated by the AK Party.

Bahçeli seems to be unaware of the boiling opposition within his ultraconservative ranks and a loss of votes on Sunday may trigger some form of a silent revolt that may trigger the prospects of this notorious fifth party.