It was already clear a few years ago that the successive three elections would take place in a rather busy and stressful atmosphere. Indeed, Turkey has never witnessed an easy presidential election.Let's remember the tension and chaos experienced at the time of the 2007 presidential election. Turkey successfully overcame all confidence tricks, including the issue of 367 members, with public support.More explicitly, there had to be 367 members to be present in Parliament for the election to begin. A candidate needed 367 votes to be elected in the first two rounds.The procedure turned into a problematic issue to avoid a straight victory by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), with 354 seats.Last week I was in Ankara and I attended the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (TÜSIAD) conference with the participation of President Abdullah Gül and afterward looked at all party lobbies from the AK Party to the Republican People's Party (CHP). The hottest issue among the party circles focuses on the presidential elections, which also serve the purpose of the parallel alliance. In this respect, President Gül's statement almost broke the routine. "I do not have a future political plan in the present conditions," he said.His statement not only annoyed the circles that try to put the AK Party into chaos over Gül, but also surprised groups looking for unrest with enthusiasm. There are people describing this as a "one step back" strategy.However, I assume that his decision bears a reality with complaint. Let's make a retrospective analysis.At the end of January this year, we were in Rome as the guests of President Gül. We talked with his special consultants about the future when we had time. Of course, we also talked about whether Gül would run for the presidency or come up with another decision.One of his consultants said, "There is nothing clear now. The results of the local elections will be an important indication. However, it should be borne in mind that President Gül will never take an action that interrupts Turkey's political route."Then I asked, "The natural flow of Turkish politics and the rank relation between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and President Gül implies the candidacy of Erdoğan. Further, there will be radical changes. Is it rational for President Gül to become a 'wise man' of politics?" His consultant gave a short answer. "I have thought about this in this way, yet we may think it over," he replied.I suppose President Gül is leaning toward this idea. This is because he is closer to the model of American former President Bill Clinton, rather than the Vladimir Putin-Dmitry Medvedev model in Russia.The political history of Gül and Erdoğan's relationship supports this assumption. As I previously wrote in a piece on April 26, 2007, "This political couple has not broken up even though there have been deep disappointments in the last 10 years. In contrast, they have 'enriched' each other until now."One of them is a leader from political life, while the other is an academic. Furthermore, one of them prefers to speak frankly, while the other seeks what is reasonable.One takes his gloves off, while the other seeks consensus. It is possible to suggest a new concept of "political brotherhood." Gül once ran for the general presidency of the Virtue Party (FP). Erdoğan then founded the AK Party. Gül became the prime minister of the 22nd Turkish government in 2002. He was also given the chance to become president. Who knows - the next step could be a presidential system.