Can the HDP pass the election threshold?


The state of the reconciliation process as well as economic and political stability will impact the course of the forthcoming general elections. If certain steps are taken regarding the process by April 2015, as recent statements and the current situation seem to show, it will be a victory for civil politics, paving the way for a new political atmosphere where violence and violent discourse are eliminated. This atmosphere, in which the discourse of civil politics will prevail, will open the floodgates for future political structures that will enable Turkey to flourish. This is an opportunity for the Kurdish political movement that is driven by the PKK and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). This opportunity is like the one ahead of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) before the 2002 general elections. Furthermore, the HDP has a significant voting rate of 9.9 percent, which was achieved by HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş as a candidate in the 2014 presidential election. This figure can be easily brought over 10 percent. The HDP should seize this opportunity, which is possible with the continuation of the reconciliation process. Otherwise, it would be a difficult task to pass the election threshold of 10 percent.It is natural for the Kurdish political movement, which has always faced the obstacle of the election threshold, to object and criticize it, but it should not get stuck on this point. The HDP should aspire for a much higher voting rate and dare to achieve this in a peaceful atmosphere where the jailed PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, wishes for the actualization of the Türkiyelileşme ("Turkeyification") project.In this respect, the existence of the current opposition bloc is another opportunity as opposition parties fail to politically compete with the AK Party and produce alternative policies. It seems that the opposition bloc will again enter the upcoming 2015 elections with an anti-AK Party campaign, giving us no hope for new politics. The only obstacle for the HDP is the loss of confidence experienced during the Oct. 6-7 protests, which broke out as a result of political shortsightedness.There are many signs indicating that this will change as the reconciliation process regains momentum. For instance, Zübeyir Aydar, an important figure in Kurdish political movement, said during a recent interview with Hüseyin Yayman, "Believe me, we want peace. We are not acting in an opportunistic manner and never will be. Our thesis of living together [in peace] is strategic, not conjuncture. We want to live together in Anatolia as Kurds and Turks. What should we do further? For us, the feelings of a person living in Anatolia are more important than of a person living in Brussels. We are eating at the same table with the people of Anatolia. First of all, we need to be on good terms with those whom we share a meal. The people of Brussels will not attend our funerals. Our cemeteries are one. If we garner support from the West, we will use it to improve the peace process."As someone living as a political refugee for many years, Aydar's politically overshadowed and wistful longing for this country tells us many things: "What I miss most is waking up in the morning in a society where I am not a stranger. When I go out to the street, I wish to say I'm a part of this culture. I want to be in a culture where I can feel that I belong, with all the voices of peddlers, the people in the streets and the sounds of adhan."While the Kurdish political movement is transforming into civil politics, it has many political actors with credibility in society such as Leyla Zana and Hatip Dicle. Aydar, Remzi Kartal and other figures from different Kurdish movements might join them with the acceleration of the process, leading us to a vibrant and dynamic election period. What matters most is overcoming mental barriers, as passing the election threshold is much easier.