Mosul and the Changing Balance of Power in the Middle East


Nowadays, Iraq sets the stage for a series of developments that could potentially change the balance of power in the Middle East. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) – whose ties to al-Qaeda proper remains disputed despite the organization's obvious ideological proximity – moves forward by conquering cities, killing scores and taking hostages. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's inability to act causes the Iraqi army to vanish into thin air while the Kurdistan Regional Government adds to its power each passing day. But what does all of this mean?The largest share of responsibility in Iraq, sadly enough, lies with the United States government whose grave mistakes and inexcusable miscalculations in attempting to reinvent the country turned the entire Middle East upside down. In order to put Saddam Hussein's regime out of business, Washington got rid of the Sunni ruling class and sought to balance out Saddam's influence by empowering Shiite groups and radical factions. Scattering former soldiers and bureaucrats across the country, the U.S. eliminated the Sunni influence.The American strategy boosted the Shiite community and, by extension, Iran while jeopardizing the balance of power in the Middle East. The following point, which Fareed Zakaria mentioned in an opinion article for the Washington Post, was particularly important: the Obama administration's decision to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq followed al-Maliki's warning that his government could no longer provide the routine guarantees. According to an Iraqi politician, who spoke to Zakaria on condition of anonymity, al-Maliki made a promise to the Iranian government that he would leave no U.S. troops on Iraqi soil. The Obama administration either could not accurately analyze al-Maliki's move or deemed it adequate to assist the Iraqi government externally despite understanding al-Maliki's plans.Aside from the United States government, al-Maliki deserves credit for the current situation for adopting incontrovertibly discriminatory, authoritarian and exclusionist policies. Interestingly enough, the Obama administration felt comfortable lending support to the pro-Shiite government's alienation of the Sunni population. The U.S. support both served the Iranian government well and agitated the Sunni community. Simply put, the U.S. paved the way for sectarian strifes in the region and worked hand-in-hand with the al-Maliki government to introduce a serious threat, ISIS, to the Middle East.The clear beneficiary of the aforementioned policies and decisions has been the Kurdistan Regional Government that proceeded to take control of Kirkuk without firing a single bullet. Meanwhile, the PKK seeks to consolidate its power on the ground. As such, the tide is turning to leave the Kurds in a rather comfortable position. It remains to be seen, though, how the most recent developments will influence Turkey's situation as the Kurdish peace process hangs on a thread. The Turkish government has little choice but to assume an extremely critical role in the ongoing crisis but must carefully avoid getting stuck in the Middle Eastern quagmire.