What will happen if Öcalan calls for disarmament?


Turkey's greatest challenge, the reconciliation process of the Kurdish question, has reached a critical turning point. If the process proceeds as planned, the PKK is expected to completely lay down its arms in Turkey within this year. In fact, it is expected that a clear message on the matter will be released in the letter to be written by jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and read out during Nevruz celebrations in Diyarbakır. Therefore, we should seek answers to the following questions in order to gain insight into the current situation of the process. What is being experienced in the reconciliation process, and what are the expectations?First of all, the return to Turkey by PKK members is a weighty matter. Several plans have been formulated to enable unarmed PKK members to return to social life. According to the picture that has been apparent thus far, the process that was initiated with the slogan, "Return to life, home, political life," it is predicted that homecomings will be realized in three ways. A one-year period is envisaged for the return of PKK members who did not get involved in crime, while those who migrated to European countries will be also given a chance to return. Furthermore, a return calendar will be set for former PKK members who settled in Iraqi Kurdistan. Different options are being discussed for the managers of the organization, including that they could gain status in Iraqi Kurdistan.The steps that will be taken after the official announcement of the end of armed struggle have also been determined. Accordingly, if nothing goes wrong and disarmament is announced by Öcalan during Nevruz celebrations, the organization's members will be assured that they will not be convicted after they withdraw or return. The obstacles to the homecoming of organization members who did not take part in protests will be eliminated and evacuations will begin in the camps of Iraqi Kurdistan. Additionally, monitoring boards will go into action and all phases of the process will be recorded. Following the political and legal steps, the fields of disarmament will be determined at a later stage. Committees, including teams of experts, will take part while PKK members leave the mountains. The organization members who did not get involved in crime will be given a chance to establish their own businesses. The process also includes boosting social participation. In addition to all these steps, all political parties will be called to participate in the process, while the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) will continue to be the political interlocutor in the process. This will be followed by steps regarding security, compliance and disarmament. In short, the constructive attitude of Öcalan and the PKK leadership in the Qandil Mountains at this stage will determine the continuation of process, and this is why Öcalan's Nevruz letter is of vital importance. It is reported that the PKK bloc raises objections to the domestic security package now in Parliament and the negotiations slow down to urge the government to make amendments to the package. It should be noted that the vandalism that unfolded during the Oct. 6-7 protests took place following a call for demonstrations by HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş. Those incidents urged the government to launch this security package. I am also of the opinion that some articles of this security package should be eased. Exceptional incidents should not bring exceptional practices. I believe some amendments will be made on the package if the PKK assures the government of public security. Confidence is the key concept for the success of the reconciliation process. The parties should trust each other. At this stage, parties are striving to overcome this critical threshold in order to establish mutual trust.