Five top foreign policy challenges for Erdoğan in 2016
A rough year is awaiting Erdoğan in terms of the incidents happening around Turkey such as ongoing DAESH terror and Russia's military support for Assad, Kurdish organizations and Turkish-Israeli negotiations
Turkey survived a turbulent 2015 by surmounting problems from multiple elections to terrorist attacks. The economy is showing some signs of recovery despite the Turkish Army's ongoing low-intensity war against PKK terrorists in the southeast.
Now, with a robust government in place for the next four years and no additional election in sight, it can focus on the future. Pundits will need to watch closely for the outcomes of the many policy decisions made in 2015, especially regarding foreign affairs. The top five that I will be keeping an eye on are the opening of Turkey's bases for the U.S.-led coalition fighting DAESH, deployment of forces to Bashiqa in Iraq, red lines in Syria, the Russian jet incident and diplomatic talks with Israel.
Ankara was pushed to reconsider its resistance to opening its bases for the anti-DAESH coalition following the deadly bomb attacks conducted by DAESH in Diyarbakır, Suruç and Ankara. However, Turkey was proactive in its decision to join the military wing of the coalition and undertook airstrikes on DAESH in Syria. Although Turkish airstrikes have been constrained due to Russian threats, the Turkish Air Force will be increasingly important in the upcoming days at more Turkish air bases, including not just İncirlik but also others in Diyarbakır. Furthermore, Turkey is inclined to take on a broader role when included in the U.S. and Iraq's plans to retake Mosul.
Due to a miscalculation of the powerful impact of social media, Turkey's recent attempt to secretly deploy reinforcements to a training camp in Bashiqa was easily revealed. The camp was on the verge of becoming an almost permanent base for Turkish soldiers. Despite Baghdad's resistance, Ankara decided to keep some of its soldiers there. A few were wounded this week when DAESH attacked it for the second time. Yet to be determined is how Ankara will decide to use it during the liberation of Mosul.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan drew a redline for the PKK-linked Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed People's Protection Units (YPG) when he warned them not to cross to the west bank of the Euphrates River. However, recent advancements of YPG and its Arab proxies at the Tishreen dam showed that the redline can be blurred, especially if the U.S. says so. Ankara said the forces marching to Manjib are members of Arab battalions coordinating with the YPG. Ankara's promise to shell YPG forces if they move to Manjib will have to be upheld because domestic tensions depend on it and Justice and Development Party (AK Party) voters strongly support it.
Bilateral relations with Russia will continue in a state of flux as the consequences of Turkey's downing of the Russian jet will extend into next year. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself is personally targeting Erdoğan and his family with purported blunders and fabricated allegations. A solution to the Syrian puzzle is not likely to be found in 2016 and an increase in Russia's presence there will further complicate Turkey's security concerns. A possible Russia-YPG alliance should be closely watched out for.
To the surprise of many, Ankara intensified reconciliation efforts with Israel despite the fact that it was concerned that Israel may have been reluctant due to political uncertainty in Turkey. However, the Nov. 1 early parliamentary elections gave the AK Party a strong mandate. Rapprochement between the two countries would have an extended impact on the region along with distinct Russian dislike. Known for his calculated political maneuvers, Erdoğan will undoubtedly continue to depend on open communication with and support from the Western bloc, NATO and the EU, in order to sort these challenges out in 2016. Happy New Year!
Now, with a robust government in place for the next four years and no additional election in sight, it can focus on the future. Pundits will need to watch closely for the outcomes of the many policy decisions made in 2015, especially regarding foreign affairs. The top five that I will be keeping an eye on are the opening of Turkey's bases for the U.S.-led coalition fighting DAESH, deployment of forces to Bashiqa in Iraq, red lines in Syria, the Russian jet incident and diplomatic talks with Israel.
Ankara was pushed to reconsider its resistance to opening its bases for the anti-DAESH coalition following the deadly bomb attacks conducted by DAESH in Diyarbakır, Suruç and Ankara. However, Turkey was proactive in its decision to join the military wing of the coalition and undertook airstrikes on DAESH in Syria. Although Turkish airstrikes have been constrained due to Russian threats, the Turkish Air Force will be increasingly important in the upcoming days at more Turkish air bases, including not just İncirlik but also others in Diyarbakır. Furthermore, Turkey is inclined to take on a broader role when included in the U.S. and Iraq's plans to retake Mosul.
Due to a miscalculation of the powerful impact of social media, Turkey's recent attempt to secretly deploy reinforcements to a training camp in Bashiqa was easily revealed. The camp was on the verge of becoming an almost permanent base for Turkish soldiers. Despite Baghdad's resistance, Ankara decided to keep some of its soldiers there. A few were wounded this week when DAESH attacked it for the second time. Yet to be determined is how Ankara will decide to use it during the liberation of Mosul.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan drew a redline for the PKK-linked Democratic Union Party's (PYD) armed People's Protection Units (YPG) when he warned them not to cross to the west bank of the Euphrates River. However, recent advancements of YPG and its Arab proxies at the Tishreen dam showed that the redline can be blurred, especially if the U.S. says so. Ankara said the forces marching to Manjib are members of Arab battalions coordinating with the YPG. Ankara's promise to shell YPG forces if they move to Manjib will have to be upheld because domestic tensions depend on it and Justice and Development Party (AK Party) voters strongly support it.
Bilateral relations with Russia will continue in a state of flux as the consequences of Turkey's downing of the Russian jet will extend into next year. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself is personally targeting Erdoğan and his family with purported blunders and fabricated allegations. A solution to the Syrian puzzle is not likely to be found in 2016 and an increase in Russia's presence there will further complicate Turkey's security concerns. A possible Russia-YPG alliance should be closely watched out for.
To the surprise of many, Ankara intensified reconciliation efforts with Israel despite the fact that it was concerned that Israel may have been reluctant due to political uncertainty in Turkey. However, the Nov. 1 early parliamentary elections gave the AK Party a strong mandate. Rapprochement between the two countries would have an extended impact on the region along with distinct Russian dislike. Known for his calculated political maneuvers, Erdoğan will undoubtedly continue to depend on open communication with and support from the Western bloc, NATO and the EU, in order to sort these challenges out in 2016. Happy New Year!