Will US abandon ‘Syrian Kurds' in future Syria?


The Pentagon this week declared that 40 percent of Raqqa in Syria has been liberated. Bashar Assad's forces are miles away from Abu Kamal, and it seems that in eight to 12 months eastern Syria will be cleared of Daesh. So what is next for the United States in Syria, especially with regard to the People's Protection Units (YPG)?

Last week's Aspen Security Forum was insightful in this sense, where multiple high-ranking U.S. officials made comments on the current situation. They discussed fundamental questions like are the Syrian Kurds, meaning the YPG, a friend of Washington's?

CIA Director Mike Pompeo took a breath, sighed and avoided giving a straight answer. "It is a complicated question. I'll leave the details. And I don't think you can speak about the Kurds as an individual element in any event. It's much more complex," he said. Pompeo briefly implied that in some areas Kurds were instrumental to achieving some U.S. goals, meaning there is indeed no U.S.-YPG alliance, but rather a tactical partnership, at least for the moment.

The U.S. State Department is already looking for ways to fund its stabilization efforts for the areas seized from Daesh by YPG-led forces. Ankara is troubled by the possibility that U.S. efforts would solidify the land the YPG or its subordinate Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) current hold in northeastern Syria.

Ambassador Stuart Jones, U.S. acting assistant secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, said it is very important for Washington not to create a political monopoly for any Kurdish movement or Kurdish political party. Instead, Washington would support a setting that welcomes the people who are living there but also not threatening to Turkey.

He said: "I think we can play a positive role by providing some stabilization, but not providing so much stabilization or reconstruction that we create winners on the ground who will then sort of run the table, in terms of establishing political primacy."

This is also directly connected to the question on the future U.S. presence and support to the YPG. Will the U.S. keep its bases and advisers on the ground in YPG-held areas even after the defeat of Daesh? There are multiple actors, including Turkey, Russia, Iran, Iraq and the Assad regime, that would not like that outcome.

Gen. Raymond Thomas, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command, agrees that there is a conundrum over the long-term deployment of the U.S. forces in the country. Thomas believes the U.S. can stay in Syria as long as there is a threat of terrorism that Washington has to deal with. He thinks U.S. forces are contributing to the stabilization of their specific part of Syria with their current presence. But of course there are challenges beyond the operational needs such as legality.

Raymond suggested that even if the U.S. wanted to stay in Syria in the future, it may not have the ability to do it. "We are operating in the sovereign country of Syria. The Russians have already un-invited the Turks from Syria. We're a bad day away from the Russians saying, ‘why are you still in Syria, U.S.?' It has come up in the form of some close calls there but it'll be hard," he said.

Raymond basically repeated his advice publicly that YPG forces can only help themselves if they work on their branding and remove the PKK link specifically, otherwise "this is a relationship fraught with challenges."

There might be another reason that can be very attractive for the White House to keep some of the U.S. bases in Syria in the future – Iran. It appears that some senior U.S. officials told the YPG that they can find more allies in Washington if they can present themselves as an anti-Iran actor. This is why we have begun to see some anti-Tehran statements coming from he normally Assad-friendly senior YPG figures.

But of course, in any case, the YPG would have to coexist in Syria with the Assad regime. Given all the contradictions such as Damascus providing state services in YPG-held areas, domestic trade and the presence of Assad's forces in Hasakah, the Iran card would be very hard to sell in Washington.

This is why it might be a good time for the YPG's parent organization, the PKK, to seek ways to reconcile differences with Ankara and end this meaningless bloodshed that has continued for too long and tormented thousands.