Financial markets in holding pattern


Markets moved marginally higher in Istanbul on Tuesday after a weeklong decline on news of future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and continued regional armed conflict. Remarks by the FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) made last week spooked emerging equity markets across the board, punishing global appetite for emerging market stocks and bonds. The FOMC commented that with the completion of this latest round of 'quantitative easing' the Fed would return to positive interest rates and that the committee gave guidance of a Federal Funds rate slightly above 1% for the year 2015. The Chinese finance minister later commented that there would be no added stimulus injected into the Chinese economy even as housing prices fell across the country, a worrying sign. A drying up of stimulus at the world's largest and second largest economies (The United States and China) continued to trouble emerging market investors.Near-zero interest rates had most benefited emerging markets as yield-hungry investors flocked to these bastions of actual returns on investment versus a zero percent or even negative interest rates throughout the United States and Europe. Emerging market investors knew that this day would come, however, it apparently came ahead of schedule for many. The benchmark BIST-100 traded higher at midday Tuesday, up over 600 points to trade at 77,500 points. It had traded at 77,815 a week ago as Turkish investors had already priced in the FOMC's announcement.In fixed-income markets, the benchmark twoyear government bond traded at yields of 9.08 percent, off by 4 basis points from levels of a week ago, when the two-year issues had traded at 9.04 percent. The long-end 10-year didn't fare any better as the ten-year's yields were off by 16 basis points, trading at 9.30 percent, down from 9.14 where they stood last week.Insurance against political and economic instability measured by credit-default swaps, or CDS, were up globally and Turkey was no exception, with sovereign CDSs trading at 1.95 percent. Although Turkey's CDSs were up by more than two percent on Tuesday, Eurozone member Portugal's cost of insuring its debt was up by more than 7 percent, trading at 1.65 percent midday Tuesday. The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) "Foreign Participation in Turkish Equity Markets" index was off by 29 basis points from 64.03 percent to 63.74 percent at midday Tuesday as foreign investors took some money off of the table. Turkey's equity markets were up nearly 25 percent for the year at their peak, currently still up over 16 percent for the year.The Turkish Lira recovered some of its earlier losses Tuesday, trading at 2.2340 Turkish Liras to the U.S. Dollar. The dollar had traded over 2.2420 percent earlier in the day. This brings the dollar up over two percent against the Turkish Lira within the last week as all major emerging market currencies lost ground against the dollar in the wake of the FOMC guidance.The United States along with a broad coalition of Middle Eastern allies attacked the de fact capital of the terrorist organization known as ISIS in Syria for the first time Tuesday, kicking off what will undoubtedly be a prolonged armed conflict aimed at eliminating the group. Turkey had rescued 49 Turkish Citizens and employees working at the Turkish Consulate in Mosul on Saturday. It appears the United States worked with Turkey in waiting for the release of the 'hostages' before beginning any offensive against ISIS in Syria.This week many important data releases will occur including capacity utilization and the manufacturer's confidence index on Wednesday as well as results of the Cental Bank of Turkey's meeting of its Open Market Committee Thursday. I predict no rate changes will be made.As the campaign against ISIS hits full swing and the coalition makes inroads, look for regional markets to move higher, in the meantime markets will most likely move sideways for now.