Emerging markets down across the board


Global financial markets entered their third week of systemic profit-taking as emerging markets experienced a "flight to quality." The Federal Reserve's announcement of a slow but steady increase in interest rates in the United States set off a wave of drops in emerging market equity and bond markets. Should the Fed keep its promise and increase rates to over one percent by the end of 2015, global bond investors would begin to pull out of higher yield emerging markets and move into U.S. bonds which would begin to actually produce a yield. Turkish financial markets were up by mid-Tuesday to 74,823, up 177 points for the day, however the index is off by 2,500 points from its level of 77,500 where it stood a week ago. Bond markets didn't fare any better with the two-year benchmark issue trading at a yield of 9.74 percent and the long-end 10-year government bond trading at 9.72 percent. While both bonds are off of their highs and have seen their prices increase Tuesday , they are still off their yields from a week ago by 60 and 40 basis points respectively. Bonds have an inverse relationship between yields and prices so a decrease in yield actually increases the price of bonds. The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) foreign participation in Turkish equity markets index was off by 39 basis points from 63.74 to 63.35 percent at midday Tuesday as foreign investors continued to move out of emerging markets. This tide may turn should the Federal Reserve announce a slowing of rises in interest rates or if the United States' economic recovery appears too slow. The U.S. dollar continues to trade better than almost all emerging market currencies and continues to pummel the euro as the euro-short, dollar-long pair trade continues to pay-off in spades. The two currencies have moved away significantly and appear to be headed toward parity at this rate. Should this happen, commodity prices will fall as demand by the Europeans drops in dollar dominated commodities, and ironically this will actually help Turkey as it is largely fully-energy dependent. With a decrease in energy prices, Turkey's trade gap will decrease, as was emphasized by Turkey's central bank chairman Erdem Basci in a speech last week. So, developments that are seemingly negative for Turkey may ultimately be positive should energy prices decrease faster than the slow-down in foreign investment, this may be a bet many investors are willing to take. The trade deficit announced early Tuesday should peak as energy prices retard demand, so we should see this figure shrink considerably as energy prices take a dive over the coming months. The dollar is better by TL 0.04 against the Turkish lira from a week ago, currently trading at 2.28 liras to the dollar. This is a recurring story across the globe with the strength of the U.S. dollar undisputed worldwide. Insurance against political and economic instability, measured by credit-default swaps, or CDSs, is more expensive in Turkey, trading 1 percent higher at 2.0744 near the close of trade on Tuesday. The current fight of the "coalition of the willing" against terrorist group the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has heated up with the coalition attacking more than nine cities in Syria in recent days and an apparent commitment to stay the course until ISIS is eradicated. Turkey continues to work with the United States and the coalition to stop the flow of funds and fighters to ISIS wherever it sees a potential threat and therefore, is an essential player in fighting the group that currently straddles Turkey's southern border. The humanitarian crisis in Syria is also affecting Turkish financial markets as Syrian refugees continue to pour into Turkey. The Turkish government has unequivocally stated that it would continue to support and fund the settlement of the refugees, however the strain that the refugees have taken on the government's coffers may soon be alleviated by imminent injections of funding from global refugee and humanitarian organizations, many of which Turkey is a member of. Currently third in the world for its direct humanitarian assistance given to its global neighbors, Turkey has never shied away from aiding countries and peoples in need and will do so unilaterally and infinitely.