A new spin on the collapse of crude spurs BIST rally


The unrelenting slide in crude oil prices continues to push Turkish financial markets higher as the BIST-100 index begins its third week of a record-breaking rally. The benchmark Turkish equity index is already up 31 percent for the year and is on the cusp of reaching all-time highs at this rate. Bond markets also continue to rally as the Turkish Lira gains strength on weakness in neighboring European and Middle Eastern markets.Last week, OPEC decided to keep production at its current levels, surprising many investors who had predicted a supply-cut was imminent to slow and ultimately stop the free-fall of crude prices. Since the decision, a new narrative is at play. OPEC-watchers believe that the drop in crude oil prices actually has nothing to do with falling demand but that OPEC has a more sinister plan in mind. With the relatively recent discovery of "fracking," the U.S. has begun "mining" for natural gas and condensate (an ultra-light oil that exists as a gas before extraction) which are used in the production of gasoline. The comparable cost of mining shale versus pumping oil estimates that if energy prices fall below $40 a barrel, shale-gas producers will go bankrupt as prices fall below their break-even price. OPEC is apparently playing a deadly game of chicken with oncoming shale-gas miners, to the benefit of energy-dependent countries such as Turkey. The BIST-100 equity index traded over 87,000 late Monday afternoon, up more than four percent in the last week and over 16 percent in the last month. Financial stocks, which make up much of the weight of the index, continue to see their balance sheets improve as government bonds, which they hold in their portfolios, also continue to rally. The benchmark two-year government issue rallied again last week, with its yields dropping to fresh 17-month lows of 7.25 percent. The long-end 10-year government issue also rallied with its yields trading at 7.49 percent, bringing the 10-year bond's two-month rally to over 230 basis points percent while the two-year bond's rally has spanned over 250 basis points. The Turkish Lira has also remained robust despite a global U.S. Dollar rally. The lira remained flat against the dollar Monday, trading at 2.22 liras to the greenback. The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) foreign participation in the Turkish equity markets index was reported to be 63.92 percent for the week, up 28 basis points to its highest-level in three months. Insurance against political and economic instability measured by credit-default swaps continued to be even cheaper for Turkey on Monday, with five-year corporate bond CDSs trading at 1.61 percent down over 20 percent in the last 45 days. Turkey continues to be far less-risky than some Eurozone countries such as Portugal, whose CDSs trade at 1.87 percent. ISIS's retreat coupled with falling oil prices and a relative return to normalcy are continuing to benefit Turkish financial markets and should continue to do so to wrap up the year.