All eyes have turned to Washington, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday to decide how quickly to raise the policy rate. The importance of the Fed's decision cannot be overstated especially for emerging markets such as Turkey. Signs that the Fed will begin increasing rates by mid-2015 would be disastrous for emerging markets across the board, as yield-hungry investors would move funds into U.S. treasuries. Moreover, such a move would directly impact the borrowing costs of emerging markets since their debt would become less attractive.Countries that are most affected would not be high-risk, junk-rated countries that dominate the list of emerging markets, but investment-grade countries whose bond yields have been steadily decreasing such as Turkey's. Investors that are currently in "high-yield" countries will not be swayed by 25 basis points normally; however, the policy rate will not only increase by 25 basis points nominally, it will also increase nearly infinitely on a percentage basis as the current low-end of the rate corridor is 0 percent. This is unchartered territory for much of the world and how markets will react depends more on the wording that accompanies the decision by the Federal Reserve than the decision itself.Despite robust numbers in manufacturing and unemployment, the total U.S. employment participation rate is at its lowest percentage in 40 years. This means that, of the total number of Americans that can work, only about 62.8 percent are working. This percentage was closer to 68 percent in 2000 and was last at this number in November of 1977. The participation rate is the one major metric that continues to fall in the U.S. since the 2008 "Great Recession."Something is broken in the U.S. economy. That something needs to be changed before interest rates continue to rise, and I believe Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen shares my views. This is why I doubt the Federal Reserve's announcement in the next two days will signal a hawkish raising of rates, as the U.S. economy is in too fragile a state to handle such a move.Should my prediction materialize, Turkish markets will rally. Currently, financial markets continue to trade in a tight holding-pattern with moderate profit-taking last week lowering the benchmark BIST-100 equity index by 2,000 points, bringing it down to 82,936 at midday Monday. With the index up over 25 percent in 2014, you cannot blame some investors from taking some money off of the table especially if they disagree with my assessment of the Fed's plans.Bond markets also have seen moderate profit-taking ahead of the Fed's decision with the benchmark two-year short-end government issue and the long-end 10-year issue both trading lower as their yields continue to increase. The two-year and 10-year traded at 8.34 percent and 8.33 percent respectively as their yields increased by 70 basis points and 30 basis points in the last week.The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) foreign participation in the Turkish equity markets index also saw a slight decline, falling under 64 percent for the first time in two weeks. It currently sits at 63.98 percent as some investors weigh the outcome of the Fed meeting and what effect it will have on Turkey.Insurance against economic and political uncertainty was more expensive for Turkish corporate bonds on Monday, as investors paid a little over 2 percent to insure Turkish debt. Turkish debt continues to be less expensive to insure than other European countries such as Portugal; however, the cost of insuring Turkey has increased by 30 basis points in the last two weeks.Russia's Ruble fell to its lowest level in its history against the U.S. Dollar as crude oil prices appear to be on their way down to below $60 for the first time in 6 years. Brent crude currently trades at $62.5 a barrel. Turkey's Lira was also trading at multi-month lows against the U.S. Dollar, trading at 2.33 Liras. It has not been this low since January and will not rest until the Fed's decision is released Tuesday.With OPEC on a collision course with U.S. shale gas producers, it is unclear who will blink first, although OPEC is indicating that the cartel is ready to hold on for several months of depressed prices. Russia may not be as comfortable as its oil-exporting peers; however, it appears that the Russians are all-in on this bet.Should the Fed indicate a reluctance to increase their policy rate this week, look for Turkish bonds, equities, and the Lira to rally as I believe will be the case.