Turkish financial markets rally as Fed balks at rate hikes


In the wake of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, global financial markets rallied on the "patience" the Open Market Committee has said it would have regarding raising the federal funds rate. The committee met under exceptional circumstances: A near-zero percent federal funds rate, a healthy unemployment rate, positive manufacturing numbers and low inflation, yet the United States is simultaneously burdened by a record-low employment participation rate. Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the committee voted 7-3 on Wednesday, in favor of the policy statement the Fed put out, specifying the pseudo-central bank would be "patient in beginning" to return to a normal monetary policy.Analysts on both sides of the monetary policy debate are arguing what exactly the statement means and what it will mean for financial markets in the near term. Last week ahead of this meeting, I wrote that President Obama's appointment of Janet Yellen was specifically to help turn the tide of a low employment participation rate. This is the one number that never makes the headlines. This one number is stifling America's future, as it will lead to further inequality, which will in turn lead to political uncertainty. Those left behind will vote to change the status quo, while those getting ahead will make financial contributions to campaigns of politicians who will do the opposite. What will be the result? Polarization and continued disenchantment with the U.S. political system.Why should the rest of the world care? The Federal Reserve is not only the United States' de facto central bank, it is also the world's central bank. Any aggressive monetary tightening or raising of interest rates will cause massive outflows from debt and equity markets throughout global financial markets. Why take on risk when you can get guaranteed dollar denominated returns? I had said the Fed would be dovish and imply caution because of Yellen's reservations vis-à-vis the participation rate, despite other positive data, and financial markets apparently agreed with me. Turkish financial markets are up across the board as investors continue to believe Turkey is one of the best bets globally.The benchmark Turkish equity index, the BIST-100, was up over 1 percent on Monday, trading at 84,600 late in the day. The BIST-100 had been as low as 79,000 points right before the release of the Fed minutes. This brings the index up over 27 percent for the year.Bond markets also rallied as investors that had taken profits ahead of the Fed's decision, especially those that thought a rate hike was imminent, returned en masse. The benchmark two-year government issue traded up Monday as its yield fell to 8.14 percent. Yields had climbed as high as 9.06 percent before the Fed announcement falling nearly 100 basis points in the aftermath. The long-end 10-year bond followed suit with its yields falling from 8.84 percent to 7.88 percent late Monday. Bond yields trade inversely with their price, meaning an increase in price causes a decrease in yield.Insuring Turkey against political and economic uncertainty also became much cheaper as worries of higher interest rates quickly dissipated. Credit-default swaps that insure investors against default were much cheaper for those insuring their investments in Turkey as 5-year corporate CDSs traded at 1.80 percent Monday down from over 2.21 percent, a 19 percent drop in less than a week. By comparison, insuring eurozone member country Portugal will cost you 1.98 percent.The Central Registry Agency's (MKK) foreign participation in the Turkish equity markets index fell 19 basis points on Friday since the release of the Fed minutes, falling to 63.57 percent, most likely on major currency volatility.The Turkish lira was flat on Monday, at 2.3179, up nearly 800 basis points against the U.S. dollar from its peak last week. Numerous high-profile indictments by prosecutors last week spooked currency markets, these events coupled with the Fed meeting caused the perfect storm and the lira lost major ground against the dollar, before settling back down to within 200 basis points of pre-indictment levels.The Russian ruble gained over 8 percent against the U.S. dollar on Monday, trading at 54.7589 rubles to the U.S. dollar as Russia's currency markets search for stability amid a free-fall in the nation's largest export, crude oil. The ruble had traded as low as 68 rubles to the U.S. dollar last week.Brent currently trades at $61, as it has weathered its greatest fall since the "Great Recession." Crude oil has lost 45 percent of its value in the last five-months and this is squeezing both Russia and Iraq, Turkey's two largest trading partners.Turkey's resiliency despite the near collapse of the economies of its oil-exporting neighbors, continued armed conflict on its borders with Syria and Ukraine, and renewed financial crises among its European neighbors is a testament to the strength of the underlying fundamentals of its financial markets and a signal to global investors to put capital to work in Turkey.