Chinese markets crash, Greece votes and the ECB begins to ease


Last week was one for the history books. The Swiss National Bank's announcement that it would no longer continue to devalue the Swiss Franc by propping up the euro sent shock waves throughout financial markets. With the euro floor gone, the European common currency plunged against the Swiss franc, over 17 percent, bringing the franc to parity with the euro. The floor had supported a 1.20 franc-per-euro floor. As one of its largest trading partners, Turkey needs the eurozone to be healthy, which is causing Turkish investors to show signs of concern over its volatility. Bad news out of China has also caused global investors to move towards a risk-off mode, as that country reported falling housing prices that caused equity markets to crash last week. Recent speculation about the scope and breadth of the quantitative easing (QE) that the European Central Bank (ECB) has promised will be a major catalyst for markets this week. The ECB's policy committee meets Thursday to announce what the much-anticipated QE will entail. Anything shy of 750 billion euros will disappoint investors. Anything over that amount may imply the euro is in more trouble than the ECB has let on. Following the ECB's announcement, Greece will vote on Sunday to elect a new government. Current opinion polls show the anti-European party, Syriza, headed towards a landslide victory. Should Syriza win, the Greeks will abandon austerity measures and may ultimately pull out of the eurozone or use the treat of such actions to receive more European support for their economy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index was down nearly 8 percent on Monday as global investors pulled out of Chinese equities. Chinese regulatory agencies have begun to curb margin lending, which allows investors to invest in the stock market with borrowed money. Beijing fears current financial markets are overheating and rather than a total collapse of the stock market, such as the 1929 stock market crash in the United States, premature pruning may allow markets to avoid disaster. Monday's market crash was preceded by data released Sunday that showed housing prices falling in 97 percent of housing markets in Mainland China. Housing prices dropped by over 4 percent in the last year, just as Chinese growth is slated to slow as well. On Tuesday, the government will report that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to miss the 7.5 percent target for 2014, making it the slowest year for growth since 1991. Analysts predict that GDP growth will come in at 7.2 percent and, thus, the housing slump, market crash and slowing of growth may cause Chinese markets to further drop this week.Turkish markets are trading in a tight pattern despite being surrounded by global gloom and doom. The benchmark BIST-100 index is up 400 points late Monday, bringing it near its highs for the year, trading at 87,852 points.Fixed income markets have seen profit taking with bonds trading off their recent record highs. The benchmark two-year government issue traded at a yield of 7.33 percent late Monday. Its yield had been as low as 7.13 percent last week. The inverse relationship between bond yields and prices implies a price drop results in a rise in yield. The long-end 10-year bond was also down as its yield stood at 7.12 percent late Monday, up 23 basis points from its multi-month low of 6.89 percent. The Turkish lira also experienced profit taking against the U.S. dollar. The greenback bought TL 2.3354 late Monday, whereas the lira had traded at TL 2.2812 to the dollar last week. Insurance against political and economic instability for Turkey dropped in the last week as it did for most of Europe, as ECB officials underscored a commitment to a generous QE program. Insuring five-year corporate debt in Turkey cost investors 1.84 percent, down from over 2.20 percent on Friday. The Central Data Registry's "foreign participation index" in Turkish equities was over 64 percent on Monday, the high for the year as more foreign investors put money to work in Turkish securities.Sunday's election in Greece will impact the future of the euro more than the ECB's decisions on Thursday, as a decision to pull out of the eurozone by Greece will destroy the house of cards the euro's critics say it represents. Crude oil prices continue to fall, Chinese markets may be in trouble, European markets are on the verge of either recovering or breaking apart and global investors are holding their breath as this week unfolds.