The hypocrisy of anti-Turkey ‘economists’


Let's talk solutions. Much has been made of currency volatility in Turkey of late. Today, let's talk about the facts of currency volatility, that this round of volatility is a global phenomenon and can easily be hedged against. For me to do so, let's discuss financial literacy and educating future generations so that they don't fall for the rhetoric of politicians disguised as "economists/columnists."We've often heard that education is the highest yielding investment. Many studies have proven that tax dollars spent on education have a multiplier effect and ultimately lead to a decrease in taxes collected in the long-run. Raising education standards is, however, not easy. The public school system is like a massive oil tanker, requiring much time and energy to turn. Implementing changes in curricula and retraining teachers is not only time-consuming, but costly. These are just some catchphrases from the education debate going on in the United States and across the world. Turkey is not unique, in that it suffers from the same problems in upgrading its educational system. I will leave the greater education debate to others for now, what I want to focus on today is financial education and improving basic financial literacy in Turkey as a means of both investing and deciphering which politicians are misleading the public. Knowing how to manage a bank account, deciding whether to rent vs. buy a home and diversifying a portfolio are all basic skills that are far more important than memorizing the birthdates of famous politicians (as is done in Turkey.) It is very easy for a person with even a superficial understanding of financial markets to manipulate those who lack basic financial literacy. Being illiterate means you have no choice but to trust those you turn to for advice, as you simply do not know better. I want to help begin to change that today.The number one rule of economics, the assumption on which all of economics rests, is that people are "rational." In the absence of rational actors, economics collapses. This is where finance takes over, explaining what is actually happening rather than what should be happening. In this context, my recommendation for anyone who is told to invest in an asset with promises of great returns is simply to ask the person who makes such recommendations: Where is your money? How much of your assets are in this investment? Rational actors would be invested in the idea they are selling, right?These questions not only apply to your friend who has a great stock tip (but is fully invested in real estate), but also applies to financial columnists, economists, naysayers of the Turkish economy or any other nation. So here's a question I pose to those that predict gloom and doom for the Turkish economy: Where is your money? Have you shorted (bet that an asset will depreciate) Turkish stocks? Turkish bonds? The Turkish lira? Have you sold your house and car and invested in assets that will make money should your predictions come true? I have not. I am fully invested in Turkey and the Turkish lira because I believe it will outperform every other asset class in the near-term, frankly, not because of any idealistic or nationalistic pride, but because this is the rational thing to do. I am joined by billions of dollars of foreign investment in Turkey, not because these investors like baklava but because of the competitive returns Turkey promises. So, to the "economists" who predict that inflation will skyrocket and devalue the local currency, you are aware you can hedge your Turkish lira positions right? Among your shiny graphs and fuzzy math, have you shared with your readers that the one-year Turkish bond yield is currently 8.9 percent and that hedging (immunizing yourself) against any currency fluctuation will cost you around 6 percent, meaning your real return will be over 2.5 percent if you invest in Turkey? This means that you don't care what happens to inflation or the exchange rate, you've already locked in your rate. Specifically, you can lock in the current U.S. dollar, Turkish lira exchange rate until the end of the year, (Dec. 15) for 6.4 percent.The Istanbul Stock Exchange has made these hedging instruments available - meaning if you don't want to care about currency volatility, you don't have to - but you still have a real return that is 10 times greater than the "risk-free rate" measured by the U.S. government's one-year bond yield of 0.23 percent. This is why so many foreign investors invest in Turkey: They put their money where their mouth is. More than we can say for some "economists/columnists."