What a Biden candidacy means for Turkey


The U.S. presidential election took an unexpected turn over the weekend as an unanticipated new candidate appears to have entered the fray. The former six-term senator and sitting vice president of the United States, Joe Biden, may be warming up to join the nomination contest currently led by Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Clinton's nomination had been a foregone conclusion and she's still widely tapped to be the nominee; however, allegations of mishandling classified documents may derail her candidacy even before the nomination process begins.Clinton's troubles began shortly after a New York Times article erroneously reported that Clinton was the center of a criminal probe into her use of a private mail server. The Times later retracted the article clarifying that the inspector general of the State Department had not requested a criminal probe into the former Secretary of State but that an inquiry had been made into how emails at the State Department were handled. The New York Times was blasted by Clinton's campaign into its misrepresentation of the facts and it later began an investigation into how it could have made such a grave mistake. The New York Times error was especially poignant as it comes on the eve of the first of several debates to be held between the nominees of both major political parties. A scandal now could be a fatal blow for Clinton as she continues a fundraising run in anticipation of being the Democratic Party's candidate.Democrat's scrambled to calm nerves over the weekend as Clinton's unfavorable numbers surpassed her favorable ratings, an important indicator of electability in the general election. Clinton's strategy up until now has been to keep a low profile, allow the Republican candidates to damage each other's credibility in the run-up to the Republican National Convention next summer, and then spend her Wall Street-funded war chest in the months leading up to the general election. Should the email scandal grow into a full-fledged investigation, Clinton's current $45 million cache may dwindle as she looks to regain support. The New York Times again reported, via columnist Maureen Dowd, the vice president had invited fundraisers, supporters and advisors to discuss a potential run on Friday. Whether or not this is more of the same from The New York Times, attempting to sway the public's perception of Hillary Clinton is yet to be seen.A Biden run would alter the landscape for Turkey as well, as Biden is known to have interesting and varied views on addressing Middle East crises. Biden had, for example, suggested that Iraq would be a failed state unless it adopted a confederation approach, effectively splitting up the country into three nations. Biden's plan, before being elected vice president, included giving autonomy to the Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the center and Shiites in the south. Although Turkey has longed opposed the splitting up of Iraq and Syria, a Biden proposal to take another look at the armed conflicts in the region may actually benefit Turkey.U.S. President Barack Obama has largely kept a hands-off approach and appears to be reluctant to put more American lives at risk this late in his presidency. The recent cooperation between the United States and Turkey in fighting both the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the PKK - both terrorist militant groups responsible for the deaths of thousands - has signaled a change in the war in Syria. Increased airstrikes on ISIS strongholds will cripple that group while U.S. intelligence will allow Turkey to eliminate PKK terror targets in Iraq and Syria, which have continued to attack Turkish officials within Turkey.Even a short-lived run by Biden - he withdrew from the race after only the second major contest in 2008 - may alter the outcome of the election. Should Clinton win the nomination she may choose to pick Biden as her running mate, allowing him to continue to serve in Washington. Biden's presence on a Clinton ticket may bring added trustworthiness to a nominee who may face mounting questions as investigations progress. Should Clinton's strength fade, Biden would be the ideal candidate, the most recognizable of the remaining candidates and the de facto leader of the Democratic Party with the departure of Obama from elected office next fall.As the first debate takes place this Thursday between the Republican Party's candidates, the election cycle officially kicks-off. All eyes will be on the debate for signs as to who might actually become the next president and inherit a world of crises looking to be addressed.