Silver lining to the Russian standoff: Beginning of the end to the Syrian conflict?
A week ago Turkey shot down a Russian warplane. In the following days, the Russians responded with attacks on humanitarian convoys delivering food to hungry Syrians and most recently by attacking a Turkish aid agency-sponsored bread factory in northern Syria. As one of Syrian President Bashar Assad's primary backers, this is part of Russia's endgame in Syria. Starve the anti-Assad Syrians out; make life so unbearable in Syria that the rebels are either killed or flee the country. This would leave Assad to declare victory over a country left barren and weary after years of war and allow Russia to strengthen its presence in the Mediterranean.
Russia demanded an apology and admission of wrongdoing from Ankara, demands that were summarily rebuffed. In response, Russia imposed financial penalties on Turkey. New barriers for Turkish companies exporting goods to Russia were immediately enacted, the visa-free travel arrangement between countries was unilaterally voided by Moscow and the expulsion of 50,000 Turkish workers and their families - an estimated 200,000 people in total - from Russia has been scheduled by year's end. Russia is also taking steps to dissuade the 3 million Russian tourists that visit Turkey annually from doing so in the future. So far, all bad news for Turkey.
To imagine Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane, despite being in Turkish airspace, is difficult in any circumstance. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself said as much, implying a case of mistaken identity following the incident. What would be even more difficult to imagine, however, would be the United States shooting down a Russian warplane or vice versa. Such an incident would lead to political posturing and fiery rhetoric by both countries, and would result in the worst possible scenario in terms of global uncertainty. In other words, if Russia was to be warned by the "West" regarding its widening role in Syria, this was the best-case scenario.
Turkey is/was Russia's closest friend among the NATO allies, and had enjoyed relatively warm relations with Moscow up until this incident. Who better to deliver a slap on the wrist to Moscow? The subsequent death of one of the pilots at the hands of the rebels they were bombing, who appear to have safely ejected, was both unforeseen and unnecessary, and aggravated Russia's response to the incident.
Turkey's rules of engagement with foreign warplanes in Syria are presumably drawn up in concert with its NATO allies, many of whom began accepting Syrian refugees in their own countries this fall. At some point, Turkey decided it would enforce its repeated threats at protecting territorial sovereignty, and I doubt it did so without the explicit go-ahead from the United States and NATO. In light of subsequent events, how will NATO and the United States help alleviate Turkey's economic suffering following their joint decision to reprimand Russia?
On Sunday, the European Union affirmed its commitment to provide Turkey with 3 billion euros in aid to improve the conditions currently faced by the more than 2 million refugees in Turkey. The EU's aid is unfortunately too little too late. Earlier assistance would have helped Turkey better host Turkey's Syrian neighbors. And despite its best efforts, promises of better conditions in the EU have forced many Syrians to travel north. The impending European refugee crisis is a direct result of Europe's complete denial of the reality on the ground and its desire to ignore it altogether in the hopes that Turkey would unilaterally continue to shoulder the costs of Syrian refugees.
In an election year, U.S. President Barack Obama will most certainly step-up his efforts to fight DAESH as well as establish a post-Assad regime in Syria. This will include working with Turkey to find leaders willing to form an inclusive government that will work in opposition to Assad's "government" in Damascus. In the interim, a no-fly zone will need to be setup in northwestern Syria and a buffer zone will be formed before beginning the resettlement of refugees back to their homes, or what is left of them. Short of taking concrete steps to solve the Syrian crisis, Obama's legacy will be one of willful negligence in the Middle East. Just as the Bush name is synonymous with death and destruction in Iraq, so too will Obama's be in Syria. In the remaining 395 days of Obama's presidency, look for a new chapter to unfold, one in which Turkey and the United States take meaningful steps to end this conflict. The silver lining to the Russian/Turkey stand-off appears to be the beginning of the end of the Syrian crisis.
Russia demanded an apology and admission of wrongdoing from Ankara, demands that were summarily rebuffed. In response, Russia imposed financial penalties on Turkey. New barriers for Turkish companies exporting goods to Russia were immediately enacted, the visa-free travel arrangement between countries was unilaterally voided by Moscow and the expulsion of 50,000 Turkish workers and their families - an estimated 200,000 people in total - from Russia has been scheduled by year's end. Russia is also taking steps to dissuade the 3 million Russian tourists that visit Turkey annually from doing so in the future. So far, all bad news for Turkey.
To imagine Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane, despite being in Turkish airspace, is difficult in any circumstance. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself said as much, implying a case of mistaken identity following the incident. What would be even more difficult to imagine, however, would be the United States shooting down a Russian warplane or vice versa. Such an incident would lead to political posturing and fiery rhetoric by both countries, and would result in the worst possible scenario in terms of global uncertainty. In other words, if Russia was to be warned by the "West" regarding its widening role in Syria, this was the best-case scenario.
Turkey is/was Russia's closest friend among the NATO allies, and had enjoyed relatively warm relations with Moscow up until this incident. Who better to deliver a slap on the wrist to Moscow? The subsequent death of one of the pilots at the hands of the rebels they were bombing, who appear to have safely ejected, was both unforeseen and unnecessary, and aggravated Russia's response to the incident.
Turkey's rules of engagement with foreign warplanes in Syria are presumably drawn up in concert with its NATO allies, many of whom began accepting Syrian refugees in their own countries this fall. At some point, Turkey decided it would enforce its repeated threats at protecting territorial sovereignty, and I doubt it did so without the explicit go-ahead from the United States and NATO. In light of subsequent events, how will NATO and the United States help alleviate Turkey's economic suffering following their joint decision to reprimand Russia?
On Sunday, the European Union affirmed its commitment to provide Turkey with 3 billion euros in aid to improve the conditions currently faced by the more than 2 million refugees in Turkey. The EU's aid is unfortunately too little too late. Earlier assistance would have helped Turkey better host Turkey's Syrian neighbors. And despite its best efforts, promises of better conditions in the EU have forced many Syrians to travel north. The impending European refugee crisis is a direct result of Europe's complete denial of the reality on the ground and its desire to ignore it altogether in the hopes that Turkey would unilaterally continue to shoulder the costs of Syrian refugees.
In an election year, U.S. President Barack Obama will most certainly step-up his efforts to fight DAESH as well as establish a post-Assad regime in Syria. This will include working with Turkey to find leaders willing to form an inclusive government that will work in opposition to Assad's "government" in Damascus. In the interim, a no-fly zone will need to be setup in northwestern Syria and a buffer zone will be formed before beginning the resettlement of refugees back to their homes, or what is left of them. Short of taking concrete steps to solve the Syrian crisis, Obama's legacy will be one of willful negligence in the Middle East. Just as the Bush name is synonymous with death and destruction in Iraq, so too will Obama's be in Syria. In the remaining 395 days of Obama's presidency, look for a new chapter to unfold, one in which Turkey and the United States take meaningful steps to end this conflict. The silver lining to the Russian/Turkey stand-off appears to be the beginning of the end of the Syrian crisis.