Pricing in democracy
When I first moved to Turkey several years ago, a friend of mine asked, "Are you serious? There could be a coup d'etat any second!" I had traveled between the U.S. and Turkey frequently on business in the preceding years and so I dismissed his concerns outright. These were comments and concerns reserved for decades past, remnants of fresh memories from the 1997 coup and faint memories of the 1980 coup. A coup was inconceivable I told him, for many reasons.
The first reason why Turkey was done with coups, was that no foreign country would try to administer one. Any coup would immediately hurt the prospects of that country's own companies doing business in Turkey. In the past 15 years, Turkey has enjoyed record-breaking foreign direct investment. Many Turkish companies have been acquired by foreign companies. Over 60 percent of the publicly traded shares on the Borsa Istanbul stock exchange are owned by foreigners. So, underwriting a coup in Turkey would endanger billions of dollars in investments by these foreign actors, whoever they potentially could have been.
Make no mistake, for a coup to be successful in Turkey, the backers of the coup would have had to check with foreign governments first. What good is a coup if your administration is shunned by the global community? If you are sanctioned heavily, bringing your economy to a standstill? Iran's ability to withstand decades of sanctions-a paltry record at best- in response to their 1979 coup, is a direct result of the billions of petrodollars it has gained through sales of crude oil and natural gas supplies. Turkey does not have that luxury.
So, no foreign country would risk masterminding a coup if only to protect their economic interests in the country. Another reason why Turkey was done with coups, I argued, was that the people simply did not have the stomach for it. Stories of life after past coups are full of crackdowns on civil liberties, torture, massive purges, and economic hardship. While vetting the bureaucracy may be necessary under any coup to weed out coup-backers, past coups were markedly different. The last successful "hard-coup" saw over 1.6 million people labeled as coup backers and dismissed, 210,000 people indicted, over 7,000 capital punishment cases were opened with 517 people actually being sentenced to death. During the same coup, over 400 journalists were sentenced to a total of 4000 years behind bars. There is no way Turks would risk having to go through that again I argued.
Even if a military regime was successful at first, the people would take to the streets, protest en masse and combined with the economic sanctions the military regime would face and pressure from governments to step down, the coup would be unsuccessful. Any military officer with half a brain could see what I saw I argued.
The final and perhaps most important reason why a coup would not be successful, is that Turkey has never had such popular support for a government. The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has been incredibly successful both in elections and in objective measures of economic and socio-economic development. Infrastructure, health-care and economic development are at levels in Turkey now that most Turks would have never imagined they would have been in only 15 years.
For all these reasons, a coup was unreasonable, impractical, improbable and an incredible gamble at best. "I can't think of any other reason why the foreign press would be so rabidly anti-Erdogan," my friend replied, citing 24/7 coverage lambasting the first popularly elected president of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. "This must be a prelude to a coup."
In hindsight, I was wrong and he was right. The one issue that the foreign press doesn't get about Erdoğan is that his popularity is not a factor of ideology and his ability to convince people to adopt his. His popularity is directly related to the quality of life of the electorate. If any other Turkish leaders had been as good a chief executive as Erdoğan, they would have experienced the same popularity. The common man does not have the luxury to debate ideology and social issues. Liberalization of government coupled with economic progress is the not-so-secret for his success and the only things I care about as a voter both in the United States and Turkey.
Where will Turkey go from here? The outpouring of popular support for democracy and the rejection of military intervention, by any means, will mean the potential for a coup in the future will no longer be priced in. This means, after markets stabilize and the coup-backers are brought to justice, democracy will be priced in and Turkey will be more prosperous than ever.
The first reason why Turkey was done with coups, was that no foreign country would try to administer one. Any coup would immediately hurt the prospects of that country's own companies doing business in Turkey. In the past 15 years, Turkey has enjoyed record-breaking foreign direct investment. Many Turkish companies have been acquired by foreign companies. Over 60 percent of the publicly traded shares on the Borsa Istanbul stock exchange are owned by foreigners. So, underwriting a coup in Turkey would endanger billions of dollars in investments by these foreign actors, whoever they potentially could have been.
Make no mistake, for a coup to be successful in Turkey, the backers of the coup would have had to check with foreign governments first. What good is a coup if your administration is shunned by the global community? If you are sanctioned heavily, bringing your economy to a standstill? Iran's ability to withstand decades of sanctions-a paltry record at best- in response to their 1979 coup, is a direct result of the billions of petrodollars it has gained through sales of crude oil and natural gas supplies. Turkey does not have that luxury.
So, no foreign country would risk masterminding a coup if only to protect their economic interests in the country. Another reason why Turkey was done with coups, I argued, was that the people simply did not have the stomach for it. Stories of life after past coups are full of crackdowns on civil liberties, torture, massive purges, and economic hardship. While vetting the bureaucracy may be necessary under any coup to weed out coup-backers, past coups were markedly different. The last successful "hard-coup" saw over 1.6 million people labeled as coup backers and dismissed, 210,000 people indicted, over 7,000 capital punishment cases were opened with 517 people actually being sentenced to death. During the same coup, over 400 journalists were sentenced to a total of 4000 years behind bars. There is no way Turks would risk having to go through that again I argued.
Even if a military regime was successful at first, the people would take to the streets, protest en masse and combined with the economic sanctions the military regime would face and pressure from governments to step down, the coup would be unsuccessful. Any military officer with half a brain could see what I saw I argued.
The final and perhaps most important reason why a coup would not be successful, is that Turkey has never had such popular support for a government. The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has been incredibly successful both in elections and in objective measures of economic and socio-economic development. Infrastructure, health-care and economic development are at levels in Turkey now that most Turks would have never imagined they would have been in only 15 years.
For all these reasons, a coup was unreasonable, impractical, improbable and an incredible gamble at best. "I can't think of any other reason why the foreign press would be so rabidly anti-Erdogan," my friend replied, citing 24/7 coverage lambasting the first popularly elected president of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. "This must be a prelude to a coup."
In hindsight, I was wrong and he was right. The one issue that the foreign press doesn't get about Erdoğan is that his popularity is not a factor of ideology and his ability to convince people to adopt his. His popularity is directly related to the quality of life of the electorate. If any other Turkish leaders had been as good a chief executive as Erdoğan, they would have experienced the same popularity. The common man does not have the luxury to debate ideology and social issues. Liberalization of government coupled with economic progress is the not-so-secret for his success and the only things I care about as a voter both in the United States and Turkey.
Where will Turkey go from here? The outpouring of popular support for democracy and the rejection of military intervention, by any means, will mean the potential for a coup in the future will no longer be priced in. This means, after markets stabilize and the coup-backers are brought to justice, democracy will be priced in and Turkey will be more prosperous than ever.
Last Update: July 26, 2016 01:09