Imminent decline of 'Trump Dollar'


With only one month remaining before Donald Trump is inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States, global financial markets are placing their final bets. Following the election, the "Trump dollar" phenomenon has caused the U.S. dollar to rally across the board, bringing many foreign currencies to multi-year lows. Trump's words, as president-elect, have already moved markets, with the foreign exchange market only being the most visible. The Trump "Pre-Presidency Era" will either go down in history as a great indicator of how Trump would efficiently execute his policies, or alternatively as all talk and no action causing a reversal of fortune for U.S. financial markets. So far, U.S. equities have rallied to all-time highs, gold has fallen nearly every week since the election, and global equity and bond indexes are down significantly. Should Trump successfully execute his stated policy initiatives, the U.S. may experience a "golden era" with ever increasing equity markets and dollar strength. Should he fail, the U.S. will face a correction, the likes of which have not been seen since the Great Recession.During the campaign, the President-elect indicated he would push for higher interest rates and publicly chided Federal Reserve (FED) chair Janet Yellen. Last week, Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee raised the U.S. federal funds target rate for only the second time in a decade. The FED went on to predict three more increases in 2017. This would put the Federal Funds Rate at 1.25 percent to 1.50 percent, or three times what it is today. Does the FED expect inflation to take off in this strong-dollar environment of low oil and commodity prices? A year ago, after the first rate hike to non-zero, the FED predicted four rate hikes in 2016, yet followed through on only one. Should the FED's record repeat itself, we would be looking at only one rate hike in 2017.Trump's call for massive infrastructure spending, to the tune of $3-$5 trillion, would be unprecedented in U.S. history and would probably cause a rally in commodity prices. It would also blowout the federal budget, forcing the U.S. Congress to raise the debt ceiling, bringing the total U.S. government debt to near $25 trillion dollars. Would a Republican congress allow such unfunded-massive public works projects to be implemented? Judging from Trump's momentum, and his ability to thwart the Republican establishment by winning the presidency in spite of them, they may have no choice.So, will massive government spending, coupled with higher interest rates and a strong dollar period, result in economic expansion? Not likely. Such a scenario has "text book economic disaster" written all over it. Why would you borrow to invest in the stock market or in real estate when the bond market provides higher "low risk" returns? The answer is, you wouldn't. Such steps will likely cause another sell off in real estate and a major stock market correction.The European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be taking a page from the FED's playbook and has announced tapering measures that will ultimately discontinue the ECB's bond purchases. Last week's announcement included a caveat, that while tapering would begin, bond buybacks would continue throughout the year. Even so, this announcement signals the imminent end of quantitative easing (QE) for the ECB. With non-existent inflation, major demographic issues, slumping consumer demand and restrained fiscal spending, the future doesn't look bright for the eurozone. I predicted as much in a column two weeks ago and since then, the euro is at lows not seen in over a decade.The Turkish central bank announces its final rate decision for the year, and at present it looks like the bank will keep rates at these levels. It appears the currency fluctuations experienced in the Turkish lira have less to do with domestic Turkish policies and more to do with the strength of the dollar, therefore, raising rates would do little to stem the tide of the "Trump dollar," while making borrowing more expensive for government borrowing and the private sector. A return to Turkey's 1990s monetary policy needs to be avoided at all costs, even if this means currency fluctuations.President-elect Trump's latest comments regarding the Chinese capture of an American drone should be an indication of how choppy the waters will be for the incoming administration. Investors are not fans of uncertainty, and the high-stakes game of chicken being played out by the President-elect has led the U.S. on a path of extreme uncertainty. I can't wait until he actually becomes president.