U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to a joint session of Congress tonight during his first State of the Union address tonight. Investors in financial markets around the world will be glued to their screens accompanied by central bankers, including the Federal Reserve (Fed). The trajectory of the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar, global trade, inflation, bond prices, equity prices, commodity prices and actual lives will hinge on Trump's actions in the coming days and weeks. How does Trump plan to defeat Daesh? Will he follow through on his multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure renewal plan? Will shale gas regulations be lifted? These are just some of the questions the world is desperately hoping will be answered and Trump may provide answers during his speech.

The main difference between Trump and all other U.S. presidents, especially during my lifetime, is that Trump has largely done what he had promised he would do during his campaign. The U.S. electorate knew about the Muslim ban, the wall along the Mexican border and protectionist trade policies before Trump was elected because that is what he ran on. I may not agree with any of these policies, but the majority of the Electoral College and the people they represent agreed with Trump enough to put him into office. Financial markets have, as yet, applauded Trump's plans with all major U.S. indices at record highs.

Fed Chair Yellen speaks later on in the week and will be forced to address Trump's State of the Union. How will Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress be able to keep inflation low while promising major tax cuts, spending trillions on repairing roads and bridges and hiking tariffs on imported goods? The answer is that this is probably not possible. Will the Fed then be forced to hike interest rates quickly in order to tame inflationary pressures? These are all questions that Chair Yellen will need to answer and this level of uncertainty is never good for financial markets. Yellen's response will almost certainly cement a delay in hikes of the Federal Funds rate until at least May and in my view, until at least June of this year.

Another potential market moving development out of Washington comes not out of the Treasury or the Fed but from the national security apparatus. The recent appointment of General McMaster to the role of national security adviser is welcomed news following the resignation of Michael Flynn. Recent comments from McMaster that have called extremism, "un-Islamic," are promising signs of a national security adviser with a nuanced reading of armed conflicts in the Middle East. Perversions of any religion or belief need to be rejected and not associated with the traditional teachings of these beliefs. With the appointment of McMaster, President Trump's National Security team is now run largely by experienced military veterans. Career politicians are known to be more "fast-and-loose" with lives than those who have actually seen combat and as such the Trump presidency, at least with this team, may usher in, hopefully, a period of de-escalation of armed conflict globally. This is great news for financial markets as well as mankind in general.

Turkish markets and its economy are poised to benefit from de-escalation as armed conflict continues on nearly every border with the Ukraine in the north and Syria, Iraq and Iran to the south and east. How quickly and effectively Trump's team can bring about de-escalation is yet to be seen, however, Turkey's efforts in crushing Daesh with U.S. support is currently at all-time highs, with recent developments predicting the defeat of Daesh this year.

Turkey's largest trading partner, Europe, continues to be mixed as the far-right "nationalists" lead polls in upcoming elections in France and elsewhere. The British pound is down over a percent in the last two days as it appears Scotland may renew secession demands. Markets sold off the pound sterling as reports of Prime Minister Theresa May bracing for a second Scottish referendum following the triggering of article 50 - the first step in Brexit - have spooked investors. While Brexit narrowly passed throughout the U.K., Scotland rejected it by a 24-point margin. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon argues that Scotland voted to remain in the union before the U.K. voted to Brexit, meaning Scotland should have another say on "Scexit" from the kingdom. While most probably a ploy for more concessions from Westminster, another referendum is a possibility and would lead to continued sterling weakness for the foreseeable future.