Turkish markets at record highs as investors see risks fade


The benchmark Turkish equity index, the BIST100, hit an all-time high on Wednesday, trading at over 119,000 points. Bonds also rallied as yields were lower and the Turkish lira gained strength against widespread dollar weakness. The Turkish economy is enjoying great consumer confidence numbers Tuesday, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), which propelled these gains. Consumer confidence was up from 65.1 in December to 72.3 percent in January. An alternate measure of general economic outlook also jumped nearly 10 percent.

The Turkish economy has been recently plagued by political uncertainty in the international arena, especially in the final months of 2017. A spat with the United States led to reciprocal added visa regulations that were in place for several months before being lifted in the final days of last year. Turkey's recent disagreement with the United States over terrorist groups being given cover and support by American officials appears to have been resolved for now. The U.S. had given a green light to what is essentially the PKK terrorist organization in Syria, re-branded as the People's Protection Units (YPG), to hold on to the land they had helped rid of Daesh forces. It is a very peculiar agreement for the United States, especially as it recognizes the PKK as a terrorist organization. The YPG went on to ethnically cleanse these cities and villages in northern Syria and set up operations there for cross-border attacks on Turkey. The city of Afrin, near the Turkey-Syria border, was just one of these cities.

From the perspective of some U.S. officials, the diplomacy that the enemy of my enemy is my friend may work. Unfortunately, this has been disastrous for the United States in the past, and this perspective is incredibly nearsighted. In a now infamous Dec. 6, 1993 piece in British newspaper, based newspaper The Independent, Osama bin Laden, the former leader of al Qaida, is called an "anti-Soviet warrior" who "puts his army on the road to peace." Bin Laden and his forces were armed and supported by the U.S. during the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan. At the time, both U.S. and U.K. papers praised bin Laden as they had Saddam Hussein and countless other brutal terrorists and regimes. In short, the West has been down this road before. Using terrorists to fight other terrorists or governments never ends well. For its part, Turkey has witnessed the PKK conflict kill over 30,000 people in its efforts to form a PKK-led independent state in southeastern Turkey.

Ankara had great relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq up until its referendum for independence and subsequent dismantling by the federal government in Baghdad. Ironically, the PKK did not embrace its KRG brethren, proving they were not after independence for Kurds at all, but power for themselves.

Last week, the U.S. publicly supported the YPG's seizure of land in northern Syria and its intention to permanently take over these territories. As Turkey objected to a terrorist group on its southern border, U.S. officials walked back some comments. Turkey later launched Operation Olive Branch on Saturday in order to "liberate" the city of Afrin and free its citizens from the stranglehold the YPG holds on the surrounding border regions. U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration also revealed that they plan on setting up permanent U.S. bases in Syria and to stay in the country indefinitely.

Whether or not the U.S. will be able to reign in the YPG and prevent them from continuing ethnic cleansing remains to be seen, but Turkey has made it apparent that it is not in a position to gamble with the safety of its people and the long-term territorial integrity of its neighbor based on verbal assurances from terrorist organizations officials.

The quick resolution of the conflict in Afrin with very few casualties and the U.S.'s public warning to the YPG that a return to Afrin would not be permitted, were largely applauded in financial markets. The quicker both Turkey and the U.S. agree to the future of Syria and how it will be run post-Bashar Assad, the better. A return to peace and stability in the region means those armed to fight against Daesh, Assad, and terrorist groups like the YPG, can put down their weapons and return to living their lives in a newly rebuilt Syria.