Cryptogeddon is nigh


"What if ICOs are all just performance art trying to make a point about underfunded and ill-equipped securities regulators?" - Tracy Alloway

I'll get to the tweet of the millennium about initial coin offerings (ICOs), above, in a second. Yesterday, a friend of mine and one the most frugal guys I know - we'll call him "MH"- gave me a call. "I'm out," he said, his voice full of anguish. "What's the damage," I asked. "A lot," he said, pretending to lessen the blow by not speaking aloud the figure. This buddy of mine just got out of a bad investment. The investment? Cryptocurrencies, specifically Ethereum. "I've read all about it," he said. "JPMorgan is backing it," he continued enthusiastically six months ago. "Don't believe the hype, it's B.S." I pleaded. He ignored my warnings and doubled down twice while the currency took a dive and recently realized the loss.

I've been writing for months now both in this column and on Twitter, about how nearly all cryptocurrencies will be worth nothing by the end of the year with only a select few surviving after losing at least 90 percent of their value from their peak. This would mean that the most valuable three cryptos by market cap, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple will have to fall below $2,000, $130, and $.30, respectively. They currently trade at around $8,000, $450, and $.60. We're practically in April and the blockchain-based currencies are already down over 40 percent.

Now while MH has an engineering degree from a prestigious university, he was infected with a sickness that anyone is susceptible to, greed. He, along with hundreds of thousands of others, heard that cryptos would be the thing of the future and that the sky was the limit to their rise. He claims to have done the due diligence necessary to warrant an investment of nearly several months of his disposable income. His being frugal only added insult to injury, this was money he had took pains to save up and would take many months to earn back from his normal job.

For those of you still in cryptocurrencies, let me give you some advice. The reason why the currency is down so significantly recently is that the major social media companies, Twitter, Facebook, and Google, have banned advertisements by the companies that launch these currencies. While I'd like to think it was out of the kindness of their hearts, the reality is they have seen the writing on the wall. This Ponzi scheme is about to come to an end and they want to make sure that they have limited their liability in future lawsuits by no longer taking money from the companies.

The tweet at the top of this column by Bloomberg Markets executive editor Tracy Alloway is one of the few funny things I've heard about an otherwise tragic story. The sell is great. The marketing on point. The meteoric rise, the twins Winklevoss, the entire story is Madoffesque in its simplicity and beauty. Unfortunately, what started as a tech experiment by true innovators has been hijacked by pump-and-dump con artists. While regulator's action in the Madoff case was far less forgivable, in this case, the speed of technology has left regulators like deer in the headlights, paralyzed to do anything here. It's not their fault, they are very much "underfunded and ill-equipped."

So what does the future hold? The restrictions on ads means no new suckers. This means no more investments which ultimately means the bottom is going to fall out of these currencies. As I've said before, some will survive, maybe even go up modestly from here. But to say this "investment" is going to rise exponentially, as the Winklevi, among others have stated publicly, is naïve at best and deceptive with the intent to defraud at worst.

My advice to both cryptotraders and investors in general: If you won't miss the money you lose, great, don't sweat it. It was a gamble, you probably lost, move on. If, however, like MH you invested way too much or will miss dearly the money you've already lost, ask yourself this question: If you still had funds to invest, would you buy again, now? If the answer to this question is no, you've gotta sell what you still have. There's no difference between selling the investment you currently have and not buying it again. You no longer believe in the investment. If the reality changes you can always re-evaluate and reinvest later, but for now, save what you can salvage, before there's nothing left to save.