A strange deja vu


Which of the conditions that led to former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's demise no longer exist in Egypt today? Is the situation better or worse today than the day Mubarak resigned? After four years, a quick glance at the conditions leading up to the Jan. 25 revolution would establish that Egypt is currently experiencing nothing more than deja vu.The Egyptian establishment never saw systemic change or structural rupture in Mubarak's downfall. For them, the event merely amounted to a public figure whose 30-year tenure had led him to the brink of political and economic bankruptcy, exiting the country's political scene. This was precisely why the Egyptian regime regarded the Jan. 25 revolution as a change in personnel while millions of people on the streets believed they had claimed victory.Mubarak's demise, however, revealed that the Egyptian establishment lacked the resources to fill the power vacuum all along. The following months set the stage for elections, constitutional referendums and amateur moves from extra-parliamentary forces - all with no lasting influence. The transition period, which started on Jan. 25, 2011, ended with the military coup of July 3, 2013. For the record, the course of events did not reflect a particular decision by the Egyptian regime nor did it mean that the establishment had taken the necessary measures to move forward. Quite the contrary, the regime used outside interventions to trigger a process with no clear outcome.At this point, the country's involvement in crises does not even compare to the Mubarak era. During the same period, regional supporters of the military coup have witnessed the rise of greater challenges for themselves. The military coup in Yemen, which marked the most recent addition to the trend, coincided with the regal accetion in Saudi Arabia. While it remains to be seen what exactly this coincidence will entail, it is safe to assume that the Gulf's advocacy of the status quo in Yemen has moved beyond reach, which in turn means that hostility toward agents of change in Egypt and elsewhere has not exactly benefited regional actors.The Jan. 25 revolution, regardless of the ways in which it was described in Western media outlets, was only successful due to the support of the Muslim Brotherhood and the broader Islamic movement. The developments in Tunisia, which set the tone for the affair, undeniably influenced Egypt. A simple way to grasp the extent of the brotherhood's influence would be to take a quick look at a series of post-2011 elections in the country.One year has passed since the military coup. It has been four years since the revolution. And today we witness Egyptians questioning their future yet again. Most recently, a series of bloody protests took place during the revolution's fourth anniversary, which was the first time since the initial aftermath of the coup that widespread protests have taken place in major Egyptian cities. Whether or not the situation will lead to structural change remains to be seen. There are, however, certain signs. With the most recent protests, so-called opposition groups that sided with the July 3 coup effectively declared their partnership with the junta null and void. This, of course, does not mean that the anti-establishment platform has been unified, but it nonetheless signifies the re-emergence of a united front. The Jan. 25 revolution had taken place with no obvious leader or agenda. Concentrating on Mubarak himself, a personified objection had surrounded the revolutionary agenda. The resulting blind spots arguably paved the way for the military coup. If a new wave of politics emerges in Egypt today, its most fundamental quality will be the targeting of the entire system and, naturally, regional supporters of the military junta, which would signal much more challenging times ahead.It would be better for Egypt if the proponents of the status quo opt for greater democracy before anti-establishment movements charge the country's largely unsustainable ways. Such a decision would undoubtedly prove challenging for those who keep the Egyptian regime in place. The Egyptian opposition, however, must concentrate on pressuring the authorities for greater democracy - an effort that enjoys better conditions than the anti-Mubarak movement.