The 2015 elections and Turkey’s political parties


The 2015 parliamentary elections could mark the beginning of a new era for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its opponents alike. At this point, the country is rapidly heading toward a new order in which political parties will no longer enjoy the luxury of celebrating the leftovers of a bygone era and the last standing obstacles before the new Turkey will come down.From the AK Party's standpoint, the upcoming general elections will entail a national conversation about swithing to a presidential system. If the ruling party succeeds in drafting a new constitution the country will finally get an opportunity to fix a range of problems associated with the guardianship regime. Having failed to prevent Abdullah Gül's presidency back in 2007, the establishment had added yet another issue to an already long list of problems. Although the AK Party remains capable of managing the de facto setting dating back to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's election, the effort necessary to compensate for the existing arrangement's errors remains a heavy price to pay for Turkey. As our readers might recall, opposition parties, which categorically oppose the debate on presidentialism, had simply ignored the question during the proceedings of the parliamentary commission on constitutional reconciliation following the 2011 elections.The present problem's solution serves Turkey's interests in at least four ways. First and foremost, designing a new system represents a shortcut to maintaining political stability and avoiding coalition governments. Notwithstanding the fact that political polarization will not vanish into thin air, presidentialism could furthermore help limit the influence of this phenomenon. Thirdly, a presidential system could address the question of administrative decentralization - an effort that the guardianship regime's representatives in the judiciary have long prevented. The final advantage relates to the necessity of sharp reflexes in a region where major geopolitical developments could take place in the foreseeable future.Seeking to reduce the presidentialism debate to a question about the AK Party while effectively avoiding pressing issues and potential crises, the opposition does little to help resolve existing problems. The ruling party, however, has already done everything in its power to develop temporary solutions to Turkey's administrative and democratic shortcomings, which is why major structural and systemic changes must take place from here onward. The situation calls for the drafting of a new constitution and for the AK Party's adversaries to part ways with their unreasonable opposition to the ruling party.While opposition parties are extremely unlikely to come to power in the foreseeable future, the possibility of such a scenario closely depends on the ways in which they will relate to the AK Party. Having been unable to cope with the past decade's social, economic and political transformation, the opposition must now make a fundamental decision: They will either continue to play Don Quixote or ride the wave to reach out beyond their traditional constituencies. In order to opt for the latter, of course, they will need to be honest. Their failed experiments with quasi-AK Party scenes in recent elections must have already shown that one cannot simply talk the electorate into anything.If the opposition wished to ride the wave, they merely need to contribute to the Kurdish reconciliation process and help draft a new constitution in order to clear the road to the new Turkey. The fact that the AK Party will win the upcoming elections to consolidate its position as a dominant party primarily stems from its ability to secure its base's support for the above-mentioned policies. As such, the opposition is currently fighting an uphill battle trying to lure away voters who have already given their blessing to the ruling party on these issues. Briefly put then, the opposition's reluctance in the face of the AK Party's concrete plans does little more than slow down their own transformation and the birth of the new Turkey. As such, the real question should be whether the 2015 parliamentary elections actually mean anything for the opposition parties.