The election results and Turkey's next government


The post-election state of Turkish politics indicates that the race will not end until a coalition government is formed or the country holds early elections to settle disagreements between the largest political parties. Either way, the decision lies in the hands of the leaders who survived the June 7 elections.

A quick glance at the opposition's post-election performance reveals that electoral contests are not particularly important in their political universe. In recent weeks, opposition leaders have been saying exactly what they had brought to the public's attention on the campaign trail. Their inability to adapt not only casts a shadow over the most recent parliamentary elections, but also prevents the country from moving forward.

Thus far, the opposition has been unable to bring anything to the table except a constant demonization of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Engaging the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on the basis of one's hostility toward the president, however, attests to the opposition's lack of political smarts in addition to their commitment to creating a deadlock. Unable to choose between forming a coalition government with the AK Party and forcing snap elections to lose yet again, the opposition parties have been plagued by inconsistency.

At this time, opposition leaders are experiencing the pain of having to acknowledge the AK Party and President Erdoğan - which they avoided for years by insulting and looking down on the movement. Their main problem, in this sense, relates to being compelled to work with Turkey's most popular political party.

The June 7 elections forced opposition leaders to face the fact that hostility toward the AK Party, which dates back to the late twentieth century, has effectively become unsustainable. As such, the election results gave them a way out: Whether or not they will learn from the impossibility of excluding the AK Party and the president depends on the opposition parties and them alone.

The situation, to be sure, is not too complicated: The opposition parties need to come to terms with the fact that normalizing their ties with the AK Party and President Erdoğan is the key to making structural changes. In a world where Mr. Erdoğan is the target of demonization, the AK Party simply cannot contribute. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, therefore, will avoid such a situation at all costs. As long as the opposition refuses to revisit their game plan (i.e. demonizing the president and the prime minister), normalization will remain beyond the country's reach.

Having built their entire campaign around hatred toward the president, opposition parties had no problem expressing concern over Mr. Erdoğan getting involved in the election. When the president responded to public attacks on his person, the opposition conveniently decried polarization.

The situation resembles a famous dialogue between a Jewish mother sending her son off to the Russo-Turkish War in 1877. The mother says: "My dear boy, do not wear yourself out. Kill a Turk on the battlefield, then rest. Kill another Turk and gather your strength. Then kill another." The son asks: "What if the Turk kills me, mother?" And the mother responds: "Oh my God! Why should the Turk have a problem with you?"

The situation in Turkey cannot normalize until the opposition keeps asking why the president has a problem with them. Avoiding a more constructive approach does not make the AK Party go away, but merely delays the opposition's reconciliation with the movement. Shutting one's eyes and daydreaming about "the 60 percent" might work for now, but somebody needs to tell the country's opposition parties that Mr. Erdoğan will still be there when they open their eyes.