A major escalation toward war in Ukraine seems to have been averted.With the dynamic intervention of both the U.S. and the European Union, attempts by the Ukrainian government to remove insurgents manu militari from public buildings has been halted, avoiding a bloodbath.In addition, Russian-guided paramilitary volunteers will not be allowed to exercise their law with total impunity against the civilian population, as accepted by Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Serguei Lavrov.A quadripartite meeting was held with the participation of Ukrainian government representatives, together with Secretary of State John Kerry for the U.S., EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton and Serguei Lavrov for Russia. Up until the last moment, Russia's participation was unconfirmed.Only after Lavrov's plane departed from Moscow could Western powers breathe a sigh of relief. The conference achieved almost nothing for the future development of Ukraine, but clearly stopped a war between Russian-backed militias in the east and forces loyal to the government in the west of Ukraine.Obviously, there are many more problems regarding the ability of the Ukrainian government to control the eastern and southern parts of the country. Most of the armed forces sent to establish order in these parts of the country have fraternized with the insurgents. There is no clear perspective as to how to organize the presidential elections, let alone to restructure the country through deliberations and cooperation of major powers.Russia and Putin seem to have been in a position of force after annexing Crimea, holding the future of Ukraine hostage. Putin will probably insist on the implementation of a loose confederation in Ukraine, which will not be to the taste of Ukrainian nationalists.The whole scene is reminiscent of the aftermath of World War II when victorious powers were negotiating about the regimes of countries freed from Nazi occupation.Putin, very much in the same vein as Iosif Vissarionovich Jugashvili, known as Stalin, does not take risks unless he is certain of victory. Invading Ukraine is too great a risk for Putin but he has taken all necessary measures to prevent a solution that could be detrimental to Russia. He has all the latitude to destabilize Ukraine, already in a shaky economic and political situation without Russian interference.For its part, Turkey has kept a rather low profile throughout the crisis, extending support to the Turkish population of Crimea and hoping for a peaceful outcome to the crisis. On Thursday, Prime Minister Erdoğan had a long phone conversation with President Putin, of which not much has been leaked. The official statement stipulated that the two leaders discussed the situation in Ukraine, foreign trade, energy and economic issues.For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia is on the verge of carrying out an important high-tech investment in Turkey. The Nuclear Energy plant, a first in Turkey, will be constructed by the Russians in the Mediterranean region. This is a very important symbolic move for Putin, which will show Russia's economic capacity to export goods other than natural gas, petroleum and weapons. For Turkey, this will be the first state-of-the-art nuclear energy project.Both sides are attentive not to verbally confront each other. On the other hand, over time Russia will certainly have to pay the price of annexing Crimea and destabilizing Ukraine. What form will it take? What role should Turkey play? Too many unanswered questions are at hand. It will take all Turkey's diplomatic maneuvering to weather these stormy seas.