Can Ukraine alter the EU Enlargement Policy?


Ukraine is the theater of a major conflict again for the first time since World War II. The country is divided into two distinct parts both administratively and militarily. The majority of the population in western Ukraine sees European integration as the only possible way forward, whereas the Russian-speaking eastern regions would like to enjoy a regime closely integrated with the Russian Federation, as in the times of the Soviet Union. On one side, there is the EU front led by Germany, France and Poland, and supported by the U.S., that have all extend their support to the newly elected President Poroshenko in Kiev. On the other side, the front made up of Putin's men, including former President Yanukovich, local militias and out-of-uniform Russian military personnel, openly provoke the central administration from eastern cities such as Donetsk.Putin, by encouraging a referendum contrary to international law and rejected by the international community, has accepted Crimea's annexation by the Russian Federation. In doing so, he has established his rule over the strategic ports and military bases of the former Soviet squadron on the Black Sea. The energy transportation game has also reached a new and advantageous level for Russia since the annexation of Crimea has helped Russian authorities to bypass the Ukrainian continental shelf to connect Russia with Bulgaria beneath the Black Sea, rendering the South Stream project much more feasible.At first, the European Union took a cautious stance in order to avoid a direct confrontation in Ukraine or become involved with civilian strife. In addition, the existence of countries like Southern Cyprus and Bulgaria within the EU, which have very strong ties with the Russian administration, did not help the EU to present a united front against Russia.Nonetheless, with social turmoil degenerating into civil war, coupled with the Soviet-school diplomacy displayed by Putin – which consists of accepting things at the diplomatic level and totally disregarding them on the field – the EU has decided to take a firmer stance. Thanks to Germany and France's mediation with Russia, separatist militias have agreed to a ceasefire (although not scrupulously abided by it). However, the main choice lies for Ukraine between a "customs union" put forward by Russia and a "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area" agreement to be signed with the EU.The EU is plainly offering Ukraine a status that is only second to full membership, however, as we all know (and as we know in Turkey perhaps better than anyone else), unless one has voting rights within the EU decision-making system, no association can develop harmoniously with it. Besides, the infrastructure and regulatory framework of the Ukrainian economy can hardly support the integration with the European single market system, without getting all the help extended to a new member. This clearly shows that the Enlargement Policy has to be thoroughly revised, possibly creating a new status for non-member countries to integrate.In a world clearly becoming bipolar again, frontiers will be determined not by military means but through economic integration. The newly elected Ukranian president will sign a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement with the EU on June 29, 2014. In doing so, not only will he consolidate the choice of his country for the future, but very likely profoundly alter the future and enlargement perspective of the EU. Turkey, for once, can be positively affected by this development. An EU with Ukraine in and Turkey out cannot be envisaged. Important discussions as to how to change the enlargement architecture of the EU are in sight.