Daily Sabah
New dynamics in energy policies


Turkey is at the crossroads of an incredible number of international dynamics. Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit and its outcome has been a surprise for most foreign analysts. There has been a swift reversal in Putin's strategy to bypass Ukrainian territory for the construction of a new natural gas pipeline and offered Turkey a new junction with Russia for the transportation of natural gas. There is already a blue stream pipeline beneath the Black Sea joining Russia with Turkey to transport Asian natural gas, mainly from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. However, it is not clear whether Russia wants a new line to be constructed to increase the supply quantity to Southern European countries via Turkey.Turkey has accepted the principle of a new delivery line and soon an MOU will be produced and signed by both parties. What is remarkable is the fact that Putin has not really deviated from his initial purpose and plan: Preventing Asian natural gas from being transported to Europe without passing through Russian territory. Having declared that the South Stream pipeline project was abandoned because of the pressure exercised on Bulgaria by the European Commission - backed by principal member states of the EU - Putin is reprimanding Bulgaria while still bypassing Ukraine and keeping the distribution hub in Russian territory.The game has changed significantly though because Turkey has been virtually given a status of "dependable partner" in charge of distributing natural gas sent from Russia to Southern European countries. Turkey has already seen the failure of the Nabucco pipeline project that was designed to carry Turkmen and Azeri natural gas directly from the extraction fields to Europe through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania up to Austria. There is still the ongoing TANAP project, the trans-Anatolian pipeline, which would supply Azeri natural gas. Now the Azeri reserves are not wide enough to supply an ever-increasing number of transportation routes. The untold story is that the existing or projected pipeline web over Turkish territory will be enhanced enough to transport both gas and oil from the Caspian Basin, but also from the Middle East, especially from Iraqi Kurdistan where the cheapest natural gas in the world is extracted and Iran when the country normalizes - at an acceptable level - its relations with both the U.S. and the EU.Last but not least, gas reserves beneath the Mediterranean have been discovered, both in the Israeli and Cypriot exclusive economic zones. Israel needs to extract and market this gas mainly for political reasons and the only destination that makes sense is via Turkey. At the present stage of political relations, this does not look feasible. Southern Cyprus is desperately in need of extracting the gas and marketing it, but again, their present conduct of hatred against Turkey continuously delays such an implementation.Who is the most important actor concerning solving the existing problems in both the Middle East and the southern Mediterranean region? Vladimir Putin, without whose consent neither peace nor normalization will take place in Syria, Iraq, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. The big picture illustrates Putin winning every bet in the short run with no need to show complacency because of the abandonment of the South Stream project.