Turkey at a crossroads


When an unknown political force, founded only in 2001, won the general elections in a landslide victory in 2002, no-one thought that the AK Party's dominance over Turkish political life would be so complete or long-lasting. But it turned out to be the case, and the AK party's leader, first as prime minister then as President Erdoğan won all the electoral contests he participated in since 2002. Not only has the AK Party won a number of landslide electoral victories and referenda, but the opposition parties, starting with the main perennial opposition party, the CHP, have never been able to really present an alternative to the Turkish voters. Steadily, the political scenery has stabilized, with the AK party winning half the votes, the CHP one quarter, the nationalist MHP around 12-13 percent and the Kurdish political force stalling at 6 percent, with the remaining votes being distributed around smaller political movements.

Despite very large popular support, governance for the AK Party has never been easy. First the military, then the conservative Kemalist bureaucracy and the judiciary have used their influence in daily politics to sabotage the government. They failed badly, but their political failure has durably unsettled the state apparatus. Then the set-up took place, staged by the parallel state, where major political and illegal developments occurred.

The AK Party, under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has succeeded in overcoming all these incredible obstacles without losing its immense popular support. It is worth noting that opposition parties did not really play a noticeable role throughout this period, their audience did not increase, and their capacity to offer society projects remained non-existent. Throughout this long period of 13 years of government, the AK Party has consistently changed and restructured the Turkish economy and perhaps for the first time, Turkish voters have enjoyed a long, stable period of good governance.

At this juncture, Erdoğan became the country's first directly-elected president in the first round, with 52 percent of the votes, which gave him unprecedented popular support. He has opted for new governance that would enhance Turkey's stability and growth for the coming decade, while resolving the perennial Kurdish question of the Republic. To do so, to restructure the economy that would allow Turkey to finally become a player among the greatest economies, a presidential system has been sought by Erdoğan and his party.

We can without much hesitation affirm that Turkey is now at a new crossroads. Again, as usual, the real opposition to President Erdoğan does not come from the opposition parties, but from a variety of different and diffuse lobbies, some of them active and influential within the AK Party itself. The recent violent diatribe on the part of Deputy Prime Minister Arınç against the Ankara Mayor Gökçek can hardly be explained otherwise. It is a known fact that daily politics can give way to inappropriate declarations. Still, a very popular mayor (he has been holding this post for over 20 years), and a very senior politician (he has been speaker of the Parliament for five years and deputy prime minister for another five years), should have behaved better. Their outburst has only had one effect: making President Erdoğan's already hard job even harder.