Quagmire in Yemen


Saudi Arabia has waged a large air operation over Yemen in order to stop the advance of Houthi rebels, who are actively supported by Iran and troops loyal to ousted President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The insurgents have already taken over the capital Sanaa.

The Saudis have mobilized 150,000 troops and more than a hundred air fighters took part in the air raids on insurgent positions. The Saudi air force was seconded by Qatari, Bahraini and Emirati fighters. They have been successful in stopping the advance of insurgents, who have left the Aden airport, which they could only hold for a day. At first glance, this looks like a deep going and bloody war between different Islamic sects. On one hand, there is the mostly Sunni legal government of President Abd Rabuh Mansour Hadi supported by Saudi Arabia, and on the other, Shiite militias mainly made up of Houthi tribes, who supported by Iran.

As a matter of fact, the reality is far more confusing than that. There are Sunni and Shiite tribes and armed forces on both sides. Yemen is an almost totally failed state, dysfunctional and extremely poor. It also has the title of "the first country in the world likely to run out of natural resources," a most unenviable situation, obviously. It had been, incredibly enough, quite a wealthy piece of land during Ottoman times, because the very famous Turkish coffee was grown exclusively in Yemen, establishing flourishing commerce with the capital and other provinces of the empire. With the demise of the Ottoman Empire, Yemen has had its lot of misfortune, coffee plantations were abandoned, replaced by khat, the country was torn into two, royalists backed by Saudi Arabia fighting against republicans backed by Egypt.

Yemen's richest neighbor, Saudi Arabia, despite its immense wealth, has been of no major support to the country, creating mostly political crises like the one that happened after the attack of a U.S. warship at the port of Aden. The Saudi kingdom consistently deports thousands of Yemenis each year working illegally in Saudi Arabia, creating an untenable economic situation.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reacted very bluntly against Iran, whose military advisors and weapons are backing the insurgency in Yemen. The country is already divided and totally exsanguinated, obviously not able to support a civil war without totally destroying the administrative and physical infrastructure. But Iran is using its rogue potential in Syria, Iraq and now Yemen in order to sustain instability. The ongoing war effort has already brought most of the Middle East to the edge of bankruptcy. Iran probably wants to become an unavoidable partner in the new order to be established in this part of the world after the Arab awakening. It has no moral or physical capacity to offer any attractive social project to the people of the region, which perhaps explains its aggressiveness.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, did not come up with any better ideas than to form an Arab army as if what is really needed in the region was another armed alliance. In light of all the developments, it has now become clear how important Turkey's 2011 free trade area project was, which included Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. No wonder no major power in the region really wanted such a system to be implemented back then.