Who will be the next prime minister?


The visibility range of August's presidential polls is becoming shorter and smoke clouds are dispersing. As the decisive power of elections, the AK Party started the nomination of candidates this week. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came together with AK Party members to get their opinions on who should be the presidential candidate. It is not a secret that the representatives are in favor of Erdoğan as president.Erdoğan also implied his future performance during a meeting by saying, "I would duly exercise my entitled authorities if I became the president."On the other hand, the opposition has not announced their candidates. It seems that the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are waiting to see Erdoğan's game plan before presenting their candidates. The next president is crucial for Turkey's future.This is because the president is going to be elected by the public for the first time. The influence of the first seat in politics will thus be significantly extended.The second important issue is who will be the prime minister if Erdoğan is elected president.The AK Party's lobby now delved into the next prime minister following Erdoğan's accession to Çankaya. Here are some of the questions of interest: To whom will Erdoğan leave his seat? Who will be the prime minister until the 2015 general elections? Who will be the AK Party's chairman? Will the next prime minister and chairman be the same person? If the AK Party wins the 2015 general elections as expected, who will be the prime minister from 2015 to 2019?There are many qualified politicians to take Erdoğan's seat after the elections. However, most of these names are stuck with the three-term rule. In accordance with the AK Party legislation, no member may serve in the same elected position for more than three terms. The number of possible prime ministers is therefore not more than the fingers of one hand.The AK Party seems to have a choice among a few politicians. The party management is going to determine the next possible prime minister by taking the public opinion polls into account. In this respect, Erdoğan's game plan would be decisive. Last week, there was some unofficial news about his plan circulated among the AK Party members.The party management will select the next prime minister and general president within the framework of some principles.According to the statements of party members and the AK Party's general tendency, the leading factors are coherence and sustainability.The AK Party is looking for a prime minister who can compatibly work with President Erdoğan by maintaining sustainability. These features are counted as first priority for the continuance of the AK Party ruling.The second preference is the ability to fight against the parallel state. The AK Party base denounced the Dec. 17 operation as a judiciary coup. The Turkish people stood behind Erdoğan, the target of the judiciary coup, with a 45 percent vote in the local elections. During a recent meeting with the representatives, Erdoğan was asked how the AK Party would fight against the parallel state when he is elected president. Whether the possible ministerial candidates would be successful to eliminate illegal activities is an issue of concern. It is reported that Erdoğan said, "I will continue to combat the parallel state even if I am elected to the Çankaya mansion." The AK Party base probably wants to see a prime minister in Erdoğan's seat who is successfully able to fight against the Gülen Movement.Apart from these two factors, the next prime minister will be expected to sustain the AK Party's reformist identity and refrain from the policies splitting the party management.There are three underlying principles behind the question of who will be the next prime minister during Erdoğan's presidency.The AK Party presumably would like to bring a ministerial candidate who will be consistent with Erdoğan's decisions, is determined to spoil parallel state activities and develop the party reforms. There is no doubt that Erdoğan will make a decision within this framework.